Opinion: The Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, and oil prices may quickly fall back below $100.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Wan Zhe, an economics expert and professor at Beijing Normal University, stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by conflicts in the Middle East depend on the development of geopolitical situations. Given the current circumstances, the scale of supply shocks may exceed previous instances. The supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could account for 15% to 20% of global supply. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, and the risk of spillover from the conflict is escalating, with the potential for it to escalate into a full-blown conflict in the Middle East. The market’s panic sentiment is stronger than during historical localized wars. Regarding future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Houthi armed forces continue to harass but do not fully blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and there are no significant diplomatic breakthroughs, prices should remain above $100. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked and both major corridors are interrupted while the conflict expands to more countries, prices will definitely continue to rise. However, if a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices could quickly fall back below $100. (CCTV)