Ethereum Struggling to Break Out of 6-Month Curse, but the Situation Could Turn Bad

Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
remained up by 2.93% in March, marking its first green month since August 2025. From September to February, every month ended in the red, creating a six-month downtrend that wiped out more than 50% of ETH's value.

With only a few days left in March, the question is: can Ethereum sustain these gains, or will increasing pressure reverse the price, ending the month in the red and extending the downtrend to seven months?

March Started Strong, but the Second Half Tells a Different Story

The monthly return chart shows the extent of losses. September 2025 fell 5.59%. October dropped 7.15%. November plummeted 22.2%. December declined 0.83%. January 2026 lost 17.7%, and February fell 19.6%.

The 2.93% increase in March is indeed green, but that figure masks what’s happening in the second half of the month.

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum’s price has been moving within a descending channel since March 16, when it peaked at $2,380. This channel has pushed ETH down to around $1,970, experiencing an approximately 18% correction from the mid-March high. Currently, ETH is trading around $2,020, still within the channel and gradually declining.

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The first half of March brought gains. The second half has slowly eroded those gains. If this channel continues to pressure the price toward the lower boundary, the last few days of March could determine whether this downtrend ends or extends further.

Two key confidence metrics indicate that the bearish camp is gaining strength toward the end of the month.

Whales Are Starting to Offload Assets and Buyers Are Vanishing as Price Drops

Ethereum whale wallets outside of exchange wallets recently held 122.91 million ETH 48 hours ago. Currently, that amount has decreased to 122.73 million, a reduction of about 180,000 ETH. This is concerning, especially as the price approaches the lower boundary of the downtrend channel.

The Money Flow Index $ETH MFI, a volume-based momentum indicator that tracks buying activity, adds to the concern. Between March 8 and March 28, Ethereum’s price rose on the 4-hour chart. However, during the same period, the MFI was actually trending downward.

This bearish divergence indicates that buy support is weakening as the price declines throughout March, even though the monthly movement remains in the green. With each dip, the volume of buy orders entering the market diminishes compared to previous declines. When whales reduce holdings and buyers at lower levels start to fade simultaneously, the foundation of confidence in the current price weakens further.

If the overall market conditions weaken, these two metrics suggest that Ethereum may not be strong enough to sustain its March gains.

Ethereum Price Prediction and the $1,970 Zone

The key level is at $1,972 (the $1,970 zone). This level has been a support area since early March.

If ETH closes below $1,970 on the 4-hour chart, it means the strongest support (the 0.618 Fibonacci level) has broken, and ETH is getting closer to the lower boundary of the downtrend channel.

Below that, the next zones are $1,910 and $1,830. If it breaks below $1,830, that indicates a channel breakdown and a potential drop of around 10% from that level toward the $1,650 zone. However, such a decline might take some time to materialize.

On the upside, ETH needs to recover and stay above the $2,050 zone to ease immediate pressure. After that, the upper boundary of the channel near $2,110 will be the first real test of strength.

Currently, $1,970 separates Ethereum’s first green month in seven months from a potential breakdown that could push the price toward $1,650.