[Red Envelope] 3.27: After Liaodian, the rebound candidate may already be in place

They say people who like and follow never have bad luck. If you want your wealth luck to stay steady and go on forever, start by following me. Welcome to the Listening God Space![Taoguba]

Yesterday’s recap clearly said there are only three points-to-watch groups for the “three-to-four” ladder: the three into four tier, and the “one-to-two” tier for the one into two ladder. The ones stuck in the middle—neither up nor down—sure enough nobody wanted them. But it was still ridiculous that the second-board tier had zero advancing at the zero-jin (none got through). The node-strategy is too widely used; it’s getting more and more homogeneous. As for the pre-market thinking too: avoid the institutions’ trend; don’t chase oil & gas and petrochem; the reason is that the broader market hasn’t had volume recently, and institutional stocks’ capacity hasn’t had momentum to drive more buying. What’s rising today is also mostly mid- and small-cap stocks. How about oil & gas and petrochem? It’s not reliable—one casual line can completely flip the logic. There’s too little certainty. Even if you manage to catch a limit-up, you can’t even guess whether it will come out with some kind of nonsense again.
For the fourth board, among a few: Xineng Taishan didn’t make way; Hunan Development saw Taishan sealed immediately and it scared everyone silly. After watching the bidding of Taishan, you’d know it would probably hit the board—but when you saw that the three below it were all one-word orders with no real bodies, you couldn’t help but sigh. If there had been even one with a real-body limit-up, I would’ve thrown a bet on it. Menokowa came with debt; in pharmaceuticals—after the oversold “avoid suspicion” four-board—it’s basically there; Rongjie Co., Ltd. (Rongjie Shares) doesn’t look like a sentiment trade no matter how you look at it, and at the open it also didn’t proactively do anything. Here in the second board: originally the expectation was that Guangxi Energy would do turnover and let the industrial chain top the one-word order—but Guangxi itself opened big. That meant no connection. I don’t have a hobby of topping one-word orders. During the day, Dongsouth had an odd move; from a bit over 5% all the way to limit-up, with a big order blocking the gate—so fast it was even within a second or less. That was today’s best choice. If you were slow, you can’t keep up with a robot’s speed—there’s no solution!
Overall: Menokowa fermented an “avoid suspicion” in pharmaceuticals; Rongjie’s titanium-lithium price increase got pushed back. Both themes can be treated as a transition. I think the “electric power” angle probably hasn’t ended yet. After all, as long as Huadian Liaoning holds steady and doesn’t break, the “little brothers” won’t be cut off. In this round, I’ll first see which one—Xineng Taishan or Guangxi Energy—can really stand out.

To deal with the market’s shrinking volume and the prevalence of quant trading, this week I started doing a low-absorption approach. The Jiamet bought at the end of yesterday showed solid performance. The basic theory logic was briefly mentioned in the post at the start of the week: fundamentally it’s low-absorbing to catch the trend of incoming funds, not low-absorbing to follow an institutional trend. Next, for momentum follow-ups, I’ll adjust it appropriately—either follow-up trades with a 龙头 (leading) expectation, or ride the “set-the-leader day” (ding long ri) when it comes; the rest will be steady low-absorptions. In the current environment, the effect may be even better!

Brief commentary on consecutive limit-ups
From a static perspective of funds and sentiment: first identify opportunities and risks, and focus on making proper preparations before each trade.

Hua Dian Liaoning: A limit-up break doesn’t mean it’s over. As the new sentiment and mood “wind vane” for the sector, keep watching

Four straight limit-ups
Xineng Taishan

Electric power fiber—today’s turnover-buy point is strict. If you want to go far and keep advancing, what’s the value of zero-axis pricing?

Menokowa

The tiered “medicine box” shouldn’t be acting up, yet it actually fermented into a “pharmaceutical” attribute. The expectation is high-premium

Rongjie Shares

Energy storage and lithium battery materials—the “little brothers” are so many. If it’s not a one-word order, then it’s simply not meeting expectations

Two straight limit-ups
Guangxi Energy
Electric power new energy: On the day the 龙头 breaks its board, there’s a chance to advance—watch it

Dongsouth
Photovoltaics: solid-state batteries—doing what a tool player did for Nord Shares. Can it cut off the big brother above? That’s the key point

Jingneng Electric Power
In the electric power new energy space, both the positional strength and intensity have been suppressed; the “vantage-slot” probability isn’t big

Jinmei Technology
Coal chemical: yesterday’s Bohai Chemical doesn’t do it…

Wanbangde
Innovative drugs—follow Menokowa to do the arbitrage

Sword of God Shares
Yesterday’s big plane news sparked an old dragon; if New Scent Technology doesn’t do it, expectations aren’t high

Shida Shenghua
The battery didn’t win, and chemical engineering didn’t win either—skip it

Lianxiang Shares
Didn’t finish eating the limit-up order at the price. The industrial chain doesn’t look good for the tier lineup; whether it turns weak-to-strong is another story

Stock-specific commentary
Hunan Development: When Xineng Taishan sealed it completely, that meant the day was over. Chasing up high to take a de-follow is fine with no problem. If Taishan continues to advance, the rebound/repurchase expectation increases.
Aurid: Guiguang Network had the largest order. Friends who are familiar with my zero-axis discipline all know what it means when it opens green and then you get to 5%—but it kept getting sold into on the limit-up board. It’s better to just take the de-follow directly.
Jiamet: A fairly successful late-day “accumulation/hidden position” idea. Even if it doesn’t necessarily finish the whole move, with the arbitrage expectation, it peaked near 12. Just grab it first and say it later.

Haichuan Intelligent: A strong trend pulled back and then stabilized. I don’t know how much the repair will be, but the repair is very likely.
By the end of this week, the best performer was Huadian Liaoning’s 5-board chance—giving an opportunity, breaking through height all the way. Next, short-term market action will have a wonderful period. Compared with that, Songnen Energy and Hunan Development both identified the limit-up factors—on the day they got good boards, hard boards—but the next day they performed generally. In the end, it’s not as good as the stable effect of low-absorbing. The main reasons are the market shrinking volume + quant trading going rampant! So, adding the 3215 low-absorption approach as one more “standard weapon,” I’ll keep following the market as it evolves!
Tomorrow’s key points, same rules as usual—see the pre-market for specific ideas!
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