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Open Interest (OI) continues to increase, indicating that both bulls and bears are steadily adding positions. The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) continues to decrease, suggesting that the bears are actively selling at market price, while the bulls are passively placing limit orders to absorb selling pressure.
Now, there are two possible scenarios:
The first is that the aggressive market-price short sellers are very strong. Although the bulls' limit orders are absorbing the sell-off (leading to an increase in OI), the liquidity is insufficient to support the price, and the bullish defense line is being repeatedly broken downward.
The price will continue to decline until OI significantly decreases.
The second scenario is that the price consolidates sideways or even slightly rises (bullish selling pressure), while the bears are aggressively shorting at market price (CVD drops sharply). However, the price cannot fall further. This indicates that large funds are passively absorbing all selling pressure with massive iceberg orders or limit buy orders below the market.
If the price remains unable to fall for a long time and CVD starts to recover, then the market will reverse and trigger a short squeeze. Since the bears are attacking with current-price selling pressure, but fail to break through the bulls, all selling pressure is absorbed. The future trend will then be dominated by the bulls.
Mainly, it’s about timing—if the sideways movement lasts too long, it will start to reverse and push higher.