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ShouChuang Futures: Oil prices fluctuate at high levels, PX futures fluctuate and adjust
In the spot market, the CFR China PX price is $1,295 per ton, an increase of $21 per ton from the previous trading day.
On the supply side, since March, Asian PX has entered spring maintenance, and both Asian and domestic PX operating rates have decreased for two consecutive weeks. Additionally, the risk of oil supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues has forced refineries to significantly lower their production levels, leading to an increase in domestic and foreign PX maintenance schedules. In the future, PX production will continue to decline, and PX will enter a destocking phase.
On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally recovering, with polyester and terminal weaving gradually resuming operations. However, uncertainties in the geopolitical situation have led to severe fluctuations in raw material prices, increasing operational risks for real enterprises. Some terminals lack new orders, resulting in a decrease in factory operations, and negative feedback from the terminals has become apparent.
In summary, high oil prices are fluctuating, and profit-taking has triggered significant adjustments in the chemical sector. In the medium term, PX supply and demand show marginal improvement, and a neutral view still supports a long allocation perspective. Future focus will be on developments in the geopolitical situation, trends in oil prices, and changes in upstream and downstream facilities. (CITIC Futures)