Semiconductor equipment takes over storage to "bring immense wealth"? AI stacking process upgrade benefits, industry order visibility improves

In the AI era, storage giants that are raking in enormous profits are steadily passing the industry’s improved outlook upstream—to the semiconductor equipment segment.

Recently, SK Hynix signed a semiconductor equipment supply contract worth as much as 81.56 billion won. The partner is VM Co., the only etching equipment supplier in South Korea. Based on calculations, the value of this contract is equivalent to 116% of the company’s 2024 full-year consolidated revenue.

According to media reports citing sources with knowledge of the matter, VM Co.’s cumulative orders this year from storage manufacturers such as SK Hynix have already reached 224.6 billion won. According to a market analyst’s earlier forecast, VM Co.’s revenue this year will be between 220 billion and 230 billion won. Company executives believe that in 2026, the company’s revenue will reach a record high. He said, “Capacity expansion is under way, so this year there may be more orders.”

VM Co.’s rapid order ramp-up is not unique. At the most recent Morgan Stanley media conference, Doug Bettinger, Chief Financial Officer of U.S. semiconductor equipment leader Lam Research, said: “Ever since the 3D NAND technology was introduced, Lam Research’s revenue has doubled. We expect DRAM to bring a similar revenue growth opportunity as well.”

Data shows that Lam Research has certain advantages in advanced storage technologies such as 3D NAND. These technologies can increase storage density per unit area through vertical stacking. Doug Bettinger pointed out that semiconductor architectures are now moving toward the 3D direction; in addition to NAND, DRAM will transition from 6F² to 4F², and ultimately develop into 3D DRAM.

Brokerage analysts say that in the backdrop of the explosive rise in AI computing demand, HBM is driving upgrades in advanced DRAM processes, and 3D NAND is evolving toward stacking beyond 400 layers, causing the per ten-thousand-wafer capacity investment amount to increase in step.

Orient Securities said that as the number of stacked layers increases, the usage share of etching equipment will continue to rise. Unlike the 2D NAND era, when etching was only used as a photolithography supporting process, increasing the layer count in 3D NAND requires the etching technology to achieve a higher aspect ratio. In addition, DRAM is also expected to develop toward 3D stacking, which could further boost demand for etching and thin-film deposition equipment.

Lam Research predicts that the market for front-end equipment will grow 23% this year. To meet customer demand, the company is expanding capacity at multiple factories, including its Malaysia plant.

▌ Equipment process heads into an “upgrade wave”

In addition to rising demand, semiconductor equipment process technology is also expected to climb in step with the evolution of storage technology.

According to reports, as the stacked package height of HBM continues to increase, the industry has started to关注 the possibility of loosening semiconductor packaging specifications. Recently, the JEDEC (Joint Electron Devices Engineering Council) is considering raising the height standard for HBM packaging from the current roughly 775 micrometers to 900 micrometers.

During SEMICON China 2026, a global semiconductor event held recently, Hanmei and U.S. semiconductors announced the launch of a new generation of HBM production equipment, the “wide-size TC bonder.” As described, this equipment can stably increase the number of TSVs (through-silicon vias) and I/Os (input/output interfaces) as the HBM chip area expands. By increasing the number of micro-bumps connecting the DRAM chip and the interposer layer, it can ensure memory capacity and bandwidth and improve energy efficiency.

Meanwhile, North Huachuang and AMEC (AMEC?) have each released new-generation etching equipment, and they all, without coordinating, mentioned the impact of storage technology development on the industry:

North Huachuang said that the global surge in demand for computing and storage chips is driving continued growth in the semiconductor equipment market. Its equipment focuses on key etching process needs in the advanced logic and advanced storage fields, and can meet the requirements for manufacturing chips at more advanced nodes.

AMEC said that as advanced storage chips increasingly demand etching with higher aspect ratios, etching equipment faces multiple challenges, including etching precision, uniformity, and aspect ratio.

CITIC Securities said that given the current storage upcycle and active downstream logic demand, it expects the global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market size in 2026 to maintain year-on-year growth of high single-digit percentages, and that the share of storage is expected to increase further.

Dongwu Securities believes that 3D stacking of high-layer-count memory imposes higher requirements on atomic-level deposition technologies such as high-aspect-ratio etching (HAR), high-selectivity etching (ALE), and ALD. The value share of etching and thin-film deposition in front-end equipment ranks in the top three, and the share is trending upward as process technology advances.

The institution further emphasized that multiple patterning exposure, the replacement of advanced metal materials, and the introduction of new structures increase the number of equipment pieces and the complexity of processes in parallel. Equipment investment shows a “multiplier effect where the more advanced the technology node, the higher the unit investment,” and core platform-oriented equipment suppliers and segment-leading companies are expected to continue to benefit.

（Source: 财联社）