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#美联储加息预期再起
Trump's 10-day pause in strikes, I believe, is a tactical delay rather than genuine negotiations—10 days is not enough for diplomatic mediation, more like a window to prepare for the next move.
I don't think the probability of a "violent rate hike" by the Federal Reserve is high, but the timetable for rate cuts will definitely be further delayed. The real risk is stagflation—weakening economy + rising inflation—putting the Fed in a dilemma.
Strategic layout:
• Gold: The most certain bullish asset, with dual logic of safe haven + inflation hedge, buy on dips
• Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums could return at any time, buy on dips
• BTC: Short-term liquidity suppression, but long-term benefits from de-dollarization, dollar-cost averaging in phases
In the chaos, gold remains the best safe haven.