Jiang Muyang: Gold Rebound Begins After Stop Decline - C-4 Rebound, Gold and Silver Trends and Trading Tips

Gold Trend Analysis:

On March 24, the international gold market staged an extreme “deep V” pattern yesterday (March 23), opening under pressure and plunging to a low of $4,098 per ounce, refreshing the recent low. The market then rebounded, reaching a high of $4,513. During the U.S. trading session, it quickly rebounded due to geopolitical news, but by the end of the session, it fell back to around $4,380, closing with a long lower shadow on the daily candle, marking the end of a unilateral plunge and entering a stage of oversold recovery. This corresponds to the C-4 wave in the wave structure, with the C-4 wave adjustment ending and the final C-5 wave decline unfolding, completing the C wave downward structure.

On the news front, the bearish side: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone continues to exert pressure, with the market betting on a reduction in interest rate cuts to just one occurrence for the year, delayed until the end of the year. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold elevated, coupled with concentrated selling of previous profits, which suppresses the rebound potential of gold prices. On the bullish side: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is erratic, the U.S. has temporarily paused its strike plans, but Iran denies dialogue, and risk aversion has not fully dissipated. Central banks’ low-priced gold purchases and bottom-fishing funds are providing short-term support. Key attention today should be on fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the latest developments in geopolitical situations; any sudden changes in news will directly break the consolidation pattern.

From a technical perspective, on the daily level, after a continuous decline, gold prices are rebounding after hitting a low. The RSI indicator is approaching the oversold zone, indicating a potential recovery, but the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the rebound is still constrained by short-term moving average pressure, with the overall trend remaining weak and no clear reversal signal. On the four-hour level, gold prices have stabilized in the core support range of 4,320-4,350, showing a short-term rebound structure. The upper resistance area is between 4,450-4,480, which is also the Fibonacci retracement resistance level for this round of decline. A breakthrough here would open further rebound space; if it falls below the 4,320 support, it will trigger a second test of the lows, looking down towards the 4,250 support. Overall, gold is expected to focus on range-bound consolidation and repair today, with intensified long and short competition; operational strategies should revolve around high selling near core resistance and low buying near support.

Operational Suggestions: (for reference only)

1: Buy in batches in the range of 4,300-4,320, with a stop loss at 4,268 and a target of around 4,385-4,400-4,450. High short positions to be determined during the day.

Silver Trend Analysis:

Yesterday (March 23), the international silver market experienced a unilateral plunge, opening under pressure and quickly falling, with a drop of up to 10% at one point, hitting a low of $60.97 per ounce. The market then rebounded, reaching a high of $70.76; during the U.S. trading session, it stabilized, closing around $69 at the end of the session. The daily candle closed with a bottom-finding bullish cross, indicating that after a short-term extreme decline, it has entered an oversold zone, with today’s market focusing on technical recovery. On the daily level: The price of silver has continuously fallen, breaking through multiple moving average supports. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with silver prices hovering near the lower band, maintaining a weak pattern.

On the four-hour level: After stopping the decline, the price of silver has formed a small rebound structure, stabilizing above the core support level of $65.5, which is a key defensive area for bulls today. The upper resistance zone of $71-$70 is also a key resistance level for this round of declines, and it is simultaneously a short-term moving average resistance level. A breakthrough here would open up rebound potential, further testing around $74.5. If it falls below the $65.5 support, it will continue to show weakness and test the lower range of $62-$63.

Silver Operational Suggestions: (for reference only)

1: Buy in batches around $66.5-$65.8, with a stop loss at $65.0 and a target of $68.5-$69.5. If it breaks through the $70 level, it can be held to look towards $71.5, with strict position control and not chasing long positions.

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Editor: Chen Ping