Figure 1: Daily Market Structure

Based on yesterday's decline, it is now confirmed that the 72,000 level forms a Lower High. Referring to Larry Williams' market structure definition, 76,000 has a high probability of being a medium-term top. If the current market has shifted to a bearish trend, the expected price action is a downward retest of the lower boundary of the large ascending wedge to seek liquidity, i.e., below 65,800.
Figure 2: 4-Hour Momentum Analysis
After nearly two weeks of range-bound consolidation, the price is now on the verge of a breakout. From a bearish perspective, the ideal scenario is to wait for a retest to confirm and look for an entry point on the right side; however, based on the price behavior in the red zone of Figure 2, the bulls' two consecutive attempts to push the price above the median line (50% level) of the oscillation box have failed. This demand exhaustion signal suggests that the pullback after the breakout may have already been completed in advance.
Figure 3: 1-Hour Projection
The current 1-hour timeframe has formed three consecutive downward drives (Three Drives). In theory, after the release of momentum, it is very likely to follow with a two-wave complex pullback structure (Complex Pullback / AB=CD). For short positions that have not yet entered, the ideal sniper target for this two-wave rebound will point to the 1-hour reasonable value gap (FVG / Breakout Gap) left during this three-wave decline.
Figure 4: Key Resonance Resistance Zone
The above 1-hour gap location is a very strong technical resonance resistance zone (Confluence Zone). This area overlaps four major suppression conditions: 1. The POC (Point of Control / High Volume Node) of the past two weeks' consolidation range; 2. The POC of the overall large ascending wedge; 3. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the overall downtrend (assuming the current low point); 4. The 1-hour breakout gap.
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Trading Disclaimer
The above projection is solely a subjective analysis of the market logic. Actual trading must strictly match your personal trading system and risk management standards. The essence of technical analysis is to handle probabilities and deviations; avoid obsessing over a single direction, stay objective, and follow the market. $BTC