#特朗普称打击暂缓期延长10天 Just delayed 5 days, then delayed another 10 days. What exactly is Trump afraid of?

After postponing the plan to strike Iran’s infrastructure by 5 days on March 23, Trump issued another statement on March 26, announcing a further 10-day delay, extending the deadline to April 7. On one hand, he loudly proclaims “precision strikes,” and on the other hand, he repeatedly delays twice. Such back-and-forth operations have only one core answer — Trump is not unwilling to strike, but afraid to. Behind this are his concerns about not daring to go to war easily, with every point hiding genuine fears of “losing money, losing face.”
1. Fear of domestic backlash and losing the election and public support: After Trump announced plans to strike Iran, the US stock market and bond market immediately experienced intense fluctuations, Brent crude oil prices became more volatile, and domestic inflation pressures increased again. Most Americans oppose getting involved in Middle East wars, believing this conflict is an “unnecessary choice.” Congress also directly questioned the Pentagon’s proposed $200 billion war funding and refused to approve it. For Trump, who is in a critical election period, once war breaks out, domestic inflation could spiral out of control, and anti-war public opinion could directly impact election votes. Instead of “fighting a war he can’t afford to lose,” it’s better to delay the strike, frame his diplomatic stance around “negotiation,” which maintains a tough image while soothing domestic opinion and boosting his election prospects.
2. Fear of high war costs and losing money for fame: Trump is well aware that striking Iran is not a “quick victory” — Iran possesses advanced ballistic missile and drone counterattack capabilities and can block the Strait of Hormuz at any time. Once war begins, Iran will not only retaliate against US bases in the Middle East but also seize US oil tankers and cut off global energy channels, causing oil prices worldwide to skyrocket and harming the US economy. More importantly, although US forces are continuously increasing their presence in the Middle East, the cost of full-scale war far exceeds that of negotiations. Once caught in a “total attrition war,” it would not only devastate the US economy but also completely ruin Trump’s previous diplomatic commitments, ultimately leading to a “loss-making and face-losing” outcome.
In addition, Trump’s “delay” also conceals another concern: fear of losing leverage in negotiations.
He claims “postponed at Iran’s request,” but Iran has already denied this outright. Essentially, Trump is looking for a way out — he doesn’t want to voluntarily abandon the strike plan and be branded as “weak,” but he also dares not take real action. He can only use “postponement” to buy time for negotiations, attempting to pressure Iran into compromise through “military pressure,” avoiding the quagmire of full-scale war. This concern is closely related to the recent fluctuations in US negotiation conditions.
In summary, Trump’s two delays of the strike plan are fundamentally about “fear of losing”: fear of domestic backlash, fear of electoral defeat, fear of high war costs, and fear of losing the initiative in negotiations. The recent oscillation in US negotiation conditions (from pragmatic at the end of February, to extreme in the middle, to the current 15-point concessions) directly reflects this “fear of losing” mentality. The so-called “postponement” is never about “wanting negotiations,” but about “being afraid to fight.” It’s about delaying to avoid risks and using pressure to gain bargaining chips. Ultimately, he’s not afraid of Iran itself, but of the costs of “being unable to fight or afford to lose.”