Great Wall Securities: Domestic blueberries have become a representative of fruit consumption upgrades. We remain optimistic about industry demand growth and the optimization of the competitive landscape.

Great Wall Securities released a research report, stating that, according to Rabobank’s analysis, although China has become the world’s largest blueberry producer, per-capita consumption is still below 0.5kg. Compared with the United States’ per-capita consumption of 1.3kg, there is significant room for future growth. Domestic blueberries have frequently gone viral in recent years thanks to their unique sweet-and-crisp taste and off-season supply, and have become a representative of upgraded fruit consumption. From an operations perspective, the full-chain management requirements that span breeding, cultivation, cold-chain logistics, and channel development create a naturally high barrier to entry. Although blueberry prices show seasonal fluctuations, the industry has a relatively high entry threshold. Industry expansion has been relatively orderly, and the outlook for the blueberry consumer market is promising.

The main views of Great Wall Securities are as follows:

Domestic blueberry demand has large room for growth, with旺盛 demand around the Spring Festival

As public health awareness increases and living standards improve, blueberries—thanks to their unique taste and rich nutritional value—are gradually becoming a new favorite in the market. According to Rabobank’s analysis, although China has become the world’s largest blueberry producer, per-capita consumption is still below 0.5kg, compared with the United States’ 1.3kg per capita, leaving ample room for future growth. Domestic blueberries, with their distinctive sweet-and-crisp taste and off-season supply, have frequently attracted attention in recent years and have become a representative of upgraded fruit consumption.

According to the 2024 China Blueberry Industry Development Report, driven by planting cycles, blueberry prices also show a certain degree of seasonality. Every year from November to April of the following year is the period when Yunnan blueberries are on the market, during which prices remain relatively high, with February being the peak month. From May to July, fruit in other producing areas comes to market, and prices decline steadily. From August to October, summer fruit gradually comes to an end, and prices stabilize and then rebound.

The blueberry industry has high land-approval barriers, and high-quality seedlings are scarce

High-quality blueberry cultivation has high requirements for climate, altitude, and soil conditions. Yunnan, leveraging its unique low-latitude plateau climate, has become a globally important production area. However, high-quality base resources suitable for large-scale and facility-based cultivation have become increasingly scarce as development has progressed in recent years. Taking industry leader Nuo xun (诺普信) as an example, the area of its single planting base is typically greater than 300 mu.

As for seedlings, globally leading blueberry varieties—such as high-quality evergreen varieties—are mostly owned by major international berry production companies (such as Driscoll’s, Costa, etc.) and are managed through patenting and licensing. The cycle for new varieties—from breeding and introduction to commercialization—is long. Companies lacking core seedling resources find it difficult to directly enter the mid-to-high-end market, and the industry’s expansion pace is relatively orderly.

High initial investment for blueberry cultivation, and high precision in full-chain management

In the substrate cultivation model, the initial capital expenditure for blueberry planting is significantly higher than that for conventional crops. The average fixed cost per mu for establishing an orchard is typically between RMB 70,000 and 100,000, covering, in particular, the construction costs of high-standard greenhouse tunnels, precision drip-irrigation systems, and water-and-fertilizer integration centralized control systems, as well as the patent licensing fees for high-quality varieties and the procurement costs of tissue-cultured seedlings. In addition, to ensure berry quality, companies also need to pay for picking personnel and invest in building cold-chain storage and transportation facilities.

From an operations perspective, blueberry growth is constrained by biological growth cycles. It takes several years from construction to achieving stable production. Moreover, substrate cultivation requires extremely detailed management of water-and-fertilizer ratios, plant-protection monitoring, and the organization of labor during the picking season. The full-chain management requirements spanning breeding, cultivation, cold-chain logistics, and channel development give the industry a natural barrier to entry.

Continuing to look favorably on demand growth in the blueberry industry and optimization of the competitive landscape

Although blueberry selling prices show seasonal fluctuations, the industry has a relatively high entry barrier. Industry expansion has been relatively orderly, and the outlook for the blueberry consumer market is broad. We continue to be optimistic about blueberry industry-leading companies with more of the following characteristics: 1) companies that have laid out the blueberry industry earlier and have sufficient high-quality blueberry orchard land; 2) industry leaders that adhere to full-chain operations covering picking, processing, cold-chain logistics, and brand marketing, and have efficient cost control; 3) high-quality companies that connect the core retail end with high-quality customer distribution channels, and have the capability to produce high-quality blueberries and export them.

Risk disclosures

Intensifying industry competition; environmental and force-majeure events that are beyond control; falling product prices; blueberry seedling R&D not meeting expectations.

A massive amount of information and precise analysis—available on the Sina Finance APP