Why have I been warning about risks for the past two weeks? Today, I want to clarify the logic.

Many people ask me why I have been continuously warning about risks since last month—oil prices, Middle East war, Hormuz, Bitcoin peaking...
It's not just random noise; there is a system supporting it.
First measure: Federal Reserve's balance sheet
Looking at historical patterns, you'll find that after each balance sheet reduction bottoming out, roughly six months later, a frantic expansion is inevitably triggered.
Why expand the balance sheet? Because the economy is having problems, and the Fed is taking medicine.
People don't get sick and take medicine; the Fed doesn't have problems and doesn't expand the balance sheet—that's the logic.
Now, the turning point signals have already appeared. In the next three to six months, economic pressures will rapidly materialize.
Second measure: Nvidia's monthly chart has already given a signal
The global AI bull market leader #NVDA has formed a top structure on the monthly chart.
$172 is a key support. Once broken, it could head straight to $150, $100, or even lower—
If Nvidia falls, global tech stocks will be revalued accordingly, with no exceptions.
Third measure: Oil prices are the fuse for this crisis
Trump's tough talk is visibly softening—
Because if oil prices stay above $80 for another month or two, next quarter's economic data will be very ugly, worse than everyone's expectations.
By then, it will be too late to run.
Middle East war is easy to start, but hard to end.
This is not just a geopolitical conflict; it could be the real trigger for this round of financial crisis—
The conclusion is only one sentence:
Extreme preemptive positioning—don't wait until the data is released to realize you should exit—
The signals are already there, the direction is already drawn, what remains is your choice~ #IXIC #DJI #Bitcoin