International Morning Briefing | Rumors that the U.S. plans the "Final Blow" to end the Iran war, including island seizure and other strategies

Iran Situation | Reports Suggest U.S. Planning “Final Strike” to End War, Four Major Options Including Island Seizure

Axios citing U.S. officials and sources reports that the Pentagon is developing a military plan for a “final strike” against Iran, involving four main options, including invading or blockading Iran’s key oil export hub, Khark Island. Additionally, Iranian military sources state that if the U.S. attempts a “suicide mission” to open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is prepared and will continue to block the strait. Reports say Iran has mobilized over 1 million combat personnel, ready for ground combat with the U.S. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the Israeli military is fully engaged in striking Iranian targets, confirming that in a recent targeted attack, they killed Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander Tangseiri, who was responsible for pushing to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East Situation | Trump: Extend Iran Negotiation Deadline to April 6

Trump said Iran allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a “gift” is a gesture of goodwill in negotiations with the U.S., indicating Tehran is serious about ending the war talks. Trump also stated that, at Iran’s request, he will extend the final deadline for U.S.-Iran negotiations to April 6, and the pause on attacks on Iranian energy facilities will be extended to that date. Iranian media reports that Tehran has responded through mediators to a ceasefire proposal including 15 points from the U.S., which demands an end to enemy aggression and terrorism, guarantees that war will not recur, war reparations, and that the ceasefire must be enforced across all fronts and against all resistance groups involved in fighting throughout the region.
(Read more: Middle East Situation | Iranian Officials Respond to U.S. Ceasefire Proposal, Call It One-Sided and Unfair)

U.S. Stock Market | Dow Jones Closes Down Over 400 Points, Nasdaq Drops Over 2%

Markets worry that the U.S. and Iran may not reach a ceasefire agreement, causing international oil prices to rise again. The Dow dropped as much as 518 points to 45,910 on Thursday, closing down 469 points or 1.01%. The S&P 500 fell 1.74%, and the Nasdaq declined 2.38%. The China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.55%. Google claims a technological breakthrough that could reduce AI memory requirements, leading Micron and Sandisk to fall 7% and 11%, respectively. Nvidia dropped 4.2%, Meta fell 8%, and the group lost in two recent social media security lawsuits this week.

External Focus Briefs

• The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has not requested the U.S. to suspend attacks on its energy facilities, nor has Tehran given a final response to the so-called peace plan proposed by the U.S. Trump claimed during a cabinet meeting Thursday that Iran is in dialogue with the U.S., and Tehran is pleading for an agreement.
• Iran’s senior military spokesperson states that since the conflict between the U.S. and Iran began, 17 U.S. military bases in the region have been destroyed. In this round of fighting, Israel has lost 1,321 people, the U.S. 600-800, and nearly 5,000 wounded. These figures are unconfirmed by U.S. and Israeli authorities.
• The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that initial unemployment claims were 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week, in line with expectations.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose 10.3 basis points to 4.431%, while the 2-year yield increased 11.5 basis points to 3.996%.
• The U.S. dollar index rose 0.41% to 100.01, the euro fell 0.35%, and the yen declined 0.24%.
• Bitcoin once dropped 4.76%, trading at $68,118.
• Spot gold prices fell as much as 3.45%, hitting a low of $4,351.16 per ounce, closing at $4,378.81, down 2.83%. Spot silver closed at $67.972, down 4.61%.
• NY crude oil futures rose 5.67%, reaching $95.44 per barrel, closing at $94.48, up 4.6%. Brent crude rose 5.66% to $108.01.
• Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is evaluating the impact of oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel on the economy, reflecting that Washington is studying the potential consequences of an extreme Iran war scenario, though the White House denies this as false information.
• Bloomberg also reports that Saudi Arabia shipped about 40 million barrels of crude to China in April, lower than 48 million barrels in February, with Indian customers also receiving less oil.
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak says they may reimpose a gasoline export ban and will hold meetings with oil companies to discuss.
• Iran’s parliament is reportedly drafting legislation to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, though no specific fee has been set. Maritime tracking shows a few ships still crossing the strait daily, but some are rerouting via a “fee station” route, with at least one ship paying $2 million in transit fees.
• German Central Bank President Nagel, in an interview with Reuters, said if the Iran conflict worsens inflation prospects, the ECB’s April rate hike could be an option.
• Foreign reports: Germany’s internal estimates suggest that if the Middle East conflict persists, Germany’s economic growth could fall to 0.5% this year, half of the official forecast.
• The Euro Stoxx 600 closed down 1.13%. UK and German stocks fell 1.33% and 1.5%, respectively, and France declined 0.98%.
• The UN General Assembly passed a resolution designating the transatlantic African slave trade as “the most serious crime against humanity,” calling for reparations from countries responsible for historical crimes and the return of cultural artifacts to their countries of origin free of charge.
• According to the Ministry of Commerce website, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with U.S. Trade Representative Grier during the WTO Ministerial Conference in Cameroon, expressing China’s willingness to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation.
• Former Taipei Mayor and Kuomintang Chairman Ko Wen-je was sentenced to 17 years in prison and disqualified from public office for six years for multiple corruption cases involving Jinghua City and political donations.
• South Korea’s Yonhap reports that authorities will impose anti-dumping tariffs on industrial robots originating from China, ranging from 15.96% to 19.85%, and 17.45% to 18.64% on robots from Japan.
• Sony and Honda announced the cancellation of their first electric vehicle, Afeela 1, which was scheduled to debut later this year in California, with a starting price of $102,900.

China Considering Loosening Restrictions on Bank Equity Holdings

Reuters reports that China is considering relaxing restrictions on holdings by certain large investors to expand financing channels for commercial banks affected by the economic slowdown.

03690 Earnings | Meituan Lost 18.6 Billion RMB Last Year

Meituan (03690) reported a net loss of 23.355 billion RMB last year, with an adjusted net loss of 18.648 billion RMB. In response to recent price wars in food delivery and regulatory industry investigations, CEO Wang Xing stated during the earnings call that the company firmly opposes internal competition and “involution.”

Local Focus Briefs

• ADR Hong Kong stock index closed at 24,679, down 177 points from the Hong Kong market. Meituan (03690) down 1.6%, AIA (01299) down 1.3%, Tencent (00700) down 1%.
• Hang Seng night futures closed at 24,782, down 74 points.
• The SAR government strongly condemns the false statements and smears about Hong Kong in the so-called Hong Kong half-year report issued by the UK.
• Z/Yen and China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute jointly released the 39th Global Financial Centres Index, with Hong Kong’s overall score rising by 1 point to 765, maintaining third place globally and first in Asia-Pacific.
• Census and Statistics Department reports that in February, total export value was HKD 408.8 billion, up 24.7% year-on-year; import value HKD 472.9 billion, up 29.9%.
• The Housing Authority’s panel approved an increase in income limits for public housing households in 2026/27 by an average of 2.8%, and asset limits will also be adjusted upward by 1.4% according to the established mechanism.
• MPF Ratings states that as of March 23, March MPF investments suffered a -6.33% loss, approximately HKD 103.3 billion in absolute terms, with each member losing about HKD 21,542.
• Market sources indicate some Chinese small and medium-sized banks have reduced HIBOR mortgage rates from H+1.3% to H+0.6%, a decrease of 0.7%.
• Foreign media reports that mainland AI startups are preliminarily considering an IPO in Hong Kong.
• China Mobile (00941) reported a 0.92% profit decline last year.
• CNOOC (00883) reported an 11.49% profit decrease year-on-year.
• SMIC (00981) posted a 39.04% profit increase last year.
• Ping An (02318) reported a 6.45% rise in net profit last year.
• Ping An’s subsidiary PAOBank has been renamed “Ping An Digital Bank” (PingAnDB); as of the 15th of this month, total personal banking deposits exceeded HKD 12 billion.
• Cathay Pacific (00293) announced fare adjustments starting April 1, with short-haul fuel surcharges rising from HKD 290 to HKD 389. Hong Kong Express also announced fuel surcharge adjustments from April 1.
• CLP Power (02638) announced that the fuel adjustment charge for April will decrease from 34 cents to 30.4 cents per kWh; if fuel costs remain high or increase further, significant increases are expected mid-year.
• Pinduoduo (09991) plans to open 50 new Gap stores in mainland China this year, mainly in first- to third-tier cities, and will return to the Hong Kong market within the year.