This week's rhythm overview and breakdown of the超预期 system logic

This Week’s Key Highlights: Last Thursday, March 19, saw an increase of 492 stocks; last Friday, March 20, increased by 620 stocks. The market was frozen for two days in a row. On Monday, March 23, there was a gap-down opening, with only about 200 stocks in the green at the open. Seeing the opening directly give a new low was really exciting! [Taogu Ba]

1. Focus on the opening price logic of First Open Shares: After First Open Shares established recognition, as soon as the IPO news of Yushu Robot came out, First Open Shares hit the daily limit. The opening price on Monday was quite good, so I paid attention during the bidding, and it also hit the limit that day. So, how do I see the logic of unfollowing? I often say that the buy-sell logic is consistent; First Open Shares is just an arbitrage expectation. Looking at how it performed the day after hitting the limit previously, you’ll notice it always had a rebound to about half of the red zone. The same applies on Tuesday: the opening also reached the halfway point of the red zone. Isn’t that a sign to consider unfollowing, as it’s the intraday high?

2. Huaneng Liaoning Logic: On Monday, Huaneng Liaoning exceeded expectations during the bidding with high volume, indicating genuine capital participation for a strong open, which is quite sincere. Hitting the 6th limit-up was also beyond expectations. I mentioned in my review on Monday that breaking through the 5th limit-up with an unexpected move and hitting the 6th limit-up contributes positively to the market. On Tuesday, during bidding, Huaneng Liaoning opened at a perfect position at zero, and I paid close attention. It successfully hit the 7th limit-up early in the day. In this market environment, triggering abnormal moves on Tuesday shows that funds are unafraid of volatility, and it continued with a volume-reduction limit-up. On Wednesday, Huaneng Liaoning hit the 8th limit-up, surpassing Yunnan Energy Holdings’ 7th limit-up, which was also unexpected. On Thursday, due to regulatory risks, it’s advised to unfollow near the upper red zone and continue to monitor at lower levels.

3. Mingpu Optoelectronics Logic: On March 20, Mingpu Optoelectronics was driven by hype around optical modules/CPO with a 938 million yuan order, causing the index to pull back. Mingpu was temporarily halted, then retreated on Monday. Based on quantitative thinking, I had already positioned myself in advance, waiting for the market to lift it. Tuesday was the best opportunity for a bottom-fishing setup. The day before, U.S. stocks led the optical communication sector higher, with Lumentum up 10%, hitting a historical high during trading, and Coherent up 6.78%. Yesterday, the communication sector opened high and surged, with Mingpu Optoelectronics leading the market with a 1.044 billion yuan order, driving the sector higher. As a core in optical modules/CPO, Thursday’s opening during bidding was in line with expectations. The communication sector is the second strongest in the market, holding core positions, and maintaining the current pattern.

4. Jin Control Power and Guangxi Energy Logic: Because Huaneng Liaoning showed profit-making effects, on Thursday I focused on the first limit-up of the electric power sector, specifically Jin Control Power, and the first energy-related limit-up, Guangxi Energy. Let’s analyze the logic: Yesterday, Huaneng Liaoning shrank volume and accelerated to hit the limit-up. We know that once volume shrinks, the probability of a stock hitting a limit or breaking is higher. I considered that the next day’s first limit-up could be a play on Huaneng Liaoning’s break, with funds doing high-low switching for a rebound. During the closing bidding, Huaneng Liaoning was indeed hammered down and broke the limit, which suggests this strategy might be recognized by funds.

Today’s Index Expectation: Currently, the market volume has shrunk to 19,436 billion, indicating a stock-based game. If there’s a significant decline today, it might be worth trying for intraday recovery. If the market opens high, be cautious about chasing and getting caught.

Sector: Today is likely to see rotation. The trend of electric power, with Huaneng Energy and Huaneng Liaoning taking the lead, will determine who performs stronger today and whether the market style shifts toward this trend. Huaneng Energy is doing well, and Huaneng International, also an electric power concept stock with a relatively large market cap, might be watched to see if it gets recognized by funds. Both Huaneng Energy and Huaneng Liaoning are showing abnormal moves, so funds will continue to switch between high and low positions.