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Q1 Quarterly Large Settlement Day Approaching, Tomorrow Will Mark the Largest Options Settlement of the Year, with Nearly 40% of Options Expiring.
1. Key Settlement Data
BTC Max Pain (Max Pain): Currently anchored at $75,000, but it seems hopeless given the current situation. Put/Call Ratio (P/C Ratio): Maintained around 0.6, relatively low, indicating lower trading volume in put options, but overall sentiment remains bearish.
2. Volatility (IV) Warning: IV Crush is Coming. Currently, the front-end implied volatility (Front-end IV) close to expiration remains firm. But once the settlement tomorrow ends, a sharp IV Crush (volatility plunge) is highly likely. Buying short-term options now is extremely disadvantageous (severe Theta decay), while sellers have a clear advantage.
3. Whales and Large Positions: Today, data on Deribit shows that smart money is aggressively rolling over positions. Many institutions have closed their expiring positions for tomorrow and have heavily built out out-of-the-money (OTM) call options for June and September.
What do you all think? For this quarterly settlement, do you think the market still has hope? #Crypto #Options