Date: March 26, 2026

Short-term Impact

1)
· Event: The White House confirms that US-Iran negotiations are still progressing and "productive," and temporarily halts strikes on Iran's energy facilities.
· Impact: Short-term de-escalation of conflict → Oil prices decline, global stock market risk appetite improves.
· Focus: Whether an official ceasefire or phased agreement will be announced.

2)
· Event: The five-day deadline set by Trump is approaching, with troops continuing to gather in the Persian Gulf.
· Impact: Market enters "final bargaining window" → Volatility significantly increases, with a risk of sudden oil price jumps.
· Focus: Will there be military action or extended negotiations after the deadline?

3)
· Event: Iran proposes one of the conditions for a ceasefire: international community recognition of its jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz.
· Impact: "Sovereignization" of energy routes → Expectations of restructuring in global shipping and oil pricing systems.
· Focus: Whether the US and Europe accept this core term.

4)
· Event: High-level US Congress officials state that the war is "close to ending" and no ground invasion will occur.
· Impact: Expectations of extreme conflict decrease → Military-industrial premium declines, risk assets supported.
· Focus: Whether this aligns with actual military deployment.

5)
· Event: COSCO Shipping resumes Gulf bookings but explicitly reroutes around the Strait of Hormuz via land transit.
· Impact: "Partial recovery but high costs" in shipping → Freight rates and insurance premiums remain high, inflationary pressures persist.
· Focus: Whether direct navigation will resume instead of rerouting.

6)
· Event: Iran reiterates that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions.
· Impact: Shipping stratification (blocization) → Fragmentation of global trade routes.
· Focus: Actual release rate and involved countries.

Long-term Impact

7)
· Event: The Strait of Hormuz remains in a "basically closed" state, with ongoing risks of global energy shocks.
· Impact: Long-term energy supply instability → Elevated oil price center, increased global inflation stickiness.
· Focus: Pace of navigation volume recovery and inventory depletion.

8)
· Event: The US promotes a multilateral conference in Pakistan to attempt establishing regional resolution mechanisms.
· Impact: Conflict enters "multilateral bargaining stage" → Increased geopolitical complexity.
· Focus: Whether a long-term negotiation framework will be formed.

9)
· Event: Iran signals that if invaded on the ground, it will open more fronts (cross-regional counterattacks).
· Impact: Risk of conflict spillover and escalation → Long-term pressure on global risk assets.
· Focus: Whether it will expand to other key waterways or regions.

10)
· Event: Institutions and exchanges warn that Middle East tensions are causing significant volatility in precious metals and energy prices.
· Impact: Market enters high-volatility cycle → Gold, crude oil, and volatility assets attract long-term capital.
· Focus: Whether regulatory measures (margin limits/position caps) will tighten further.