Ending the war as soon as possible may be wishful thinking on Trump's part; a quick resolution is unrealistic. The U.S. side's 15:00 demands are extremely high, while Iran's 5:00 bottom line is non-negotiable. Iran has also stated officially: "When the war ends depends on Iran, not Trump." What if you can't beat us? Fighting to the death puts you in a dilemma. Moreover, Israel is the biggest external obstacle to a ceasefire.

The most likely scenario is a combination of ongoing negotiations and low-intensity conflict; a less likely scenario is a stalemate with gradual de-escalation; escalation of the conflict? Almost impossible unless U.S. forces attack key energy facilities like Hark Island. If that happens, it would be unprecedented. Unless Trump is truly a fool and wants crude oil prices to hit $150 per barrel, then a financial crisis is imminent.