What Are the Strategies Behind the "Peace Talks" Between the US and Iran?

Recently, the US has been signaling that "diplomatic contacts with Iran have taken place," but Iran has consistently denied this, with both sides speaking past each other. Meanwhile, military actions by the US, Israel, and Iran continue to advance rapidly.

US, Iran, and Israel Each Say Different Things

On March 23, just before the expiration of the "48-hour final ultimatum," Trump suddenly announced a delay in strikes against Iran's power plants, claiming that the US and Iran had engaged in "strong" dialogue and reached key points of an agreement. Later, media reports revealed that the US was in contact with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, planning to hold talks in Islamabad.

Iran quickly denied these reports. The Foreign Ministry stated that no negotiations had taken place with the US, and the Revolutionary Guards characterized Trump's remarks as "psychological warfare." Larijani himself also issued a statement denying the reports.

The next day, Trump reiterated that the US and Iran are in negotiations, saying "the other side wants to talk," and claimed Iran had agreed to give up nuclear weapons and had "sent a big gift" to the US regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue. Iran responded again, stating that there have been no direct or indirect negotiations so far, and told the US, "Don’t call your failures an agreement."

Ongoing Actions by All Parties

The US is discussing high-level talks with multiple mediators regarding Iran. The US has proposed 15 ceasefire plans, mainly requiring Iran to: dismantle nuclear capabilities, stop uranium enrichment, transfer high-enriched uranium stockpiles, dismantle key nuclear facilities, cease supporting regional allies with weapons, and limit ballistic missile activities. In return, Iran might have sanctions lifted.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Trump believes an "agreement" can achieve "war objectives," but also emphasized that Israel will "continue airstrikes against Iran and Lebanon."

The White House states that diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but US military operations against Iran are still "full speed ahead." Reports indicate that the Pentagon is considering deploying additional troops, possibly to seize Iran’s oil export hub at Kharg Island. A US expeditionary force is expected to arrive in the Middle East on March 27, coinciding with Trump’s new deadline for Iran.

Iran continues to launch "Real Commitment-4" operations, targeting Israeli military positions and US military bases.

Each Side Has Its Own Considerations

Iran has stated that "no one can trust US diplomacy," pointing out that it has been attacked twice during negotiations. Analysts believe that the US plan nearly demands Iran's surrender. Given the current stalemate in the conflict and the absence of domestic unrest in Iran, Iran finds it difficult to accept these terms. Iran also suspects that the US signals of willingness to negotiate are aimed at creating chaos within Iran.

Israel is concerned that the US might make "significant concessions" to reach an agreement.

For the US, after investing heavily in the conflict and failing to force Iran to capitulate, the recent talk of "peace talks" may serve to calm domestic and international opinion. It could also be a prelude to escalating conflicts later, shifting the blame for the lack of negotiations onto Iran.

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