US Stocks Soar, Oil Prices Plummet, Geopolitical Situation Triggers Major "Real vs. Fake Negotiations" Shock

How do false negotiations in geopolitics affect the US stock market and oil prices?

On Monday, March 23, U.S. financial markets stirred, with all three major indices rising sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 1,000 points intraday, closing up 1.38%. The S&P 500 increased by 1.15%, and the Nasdaq rose by 1.38%.

In terms of sectors, large tech stocks all gained, with Tesla up over 3%, Amazon up more than 2%, Facebook nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple over 1%. Most chip stocks rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.34%, Broadcom up over 4%, ASML and ARM over 3%, TSMC up more than 2%. However, Micron Technology fell over 4%, and Qualcomm declined more than 1%. Energy stocks mostly gained, with ExxonMobil up nearly 1%, Chevron up over 1%, and Schlumberger up more than 5%. Airlines surged across the board, with Boeing up over 1%, American Airlines up more than 3%, Delta over 2%, Southwest over 2%, and United Airlines up more than 4%. Most Chinese concept stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.86%, Changan Energy soaring 87%, Yipeng Energy up over 14%, XPeng and NIO each up over 7%, Pony.ai nearly 5%, Kingsoft Cloud over 3%. However, KE Holdings fell nearly 3%, and Atour declined over 2%.

The international financial markets were also volatile. On March 24, gold and silver opened with a sharp plunge but then rebounded. The latest spot gold price is $4,432 per ounce, and spot silver is $69.6 per ounce. Yesterday, gold and silver markets experienced significant fluctuations; spot gold briefly fell below $4,100, then strongly rebounded back to $4,500. Lyon Business School management professor Li Huihui analyzed that gold probably hasn’t found a true bottom in the short term. Over the next 2 to 6 weeks, gold may continue to fluctuate downward, with the $4,200 level being a key zone to re-test. However, he remains optimistic about gold in the medium to long term.

International oil prices fell sharply. WTI May crude futures dropped $10.10, a decline of over 10.28%, to $88.13 per barrel. Brent May crude futures fell $12.25, nearly 10.92%, to $99.94 per barrel.

The cryptocurrency market also saw new developments, with major coins rising collectively. Bitcoin’s price returned to $70,000, but nearly 130,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

Regarding the geopolitical situation, U.S. President Trump told the media on March 23 that the U.S. had conducted a “strong” dialogue with Iran, describing the talks as “perfect” and that an agreement outline had been reached. If all goes well, the conflict could end. However, Iran repeatedly denied any talks with the U.S. that day. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani posted on social media denying any negotiations with the U.S., claiming that spreading “fake news” aims to manipulate financial and oil markets to help the U.S. and Israel escape their predicament. Some sources said that the so-called Larijani-U.S. negotiations were completely false, and one purpose of fabricating this false news was to create conditions for assassinating Larijani. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated in a video speech on the evening of March 23 that U.S. President Trump told him that a “deal” could achieve Israel’s “war goals” against Iran, and that Israel would continue airstrikes on Iran and Lebanon.

On monetary policy, CME’s latest “FedWatch” data shows a 7.2% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April, with a 92.8% chance of holding rates steady. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 9.1%, a 50 basis point hike is 0.2%, and the chance of no change remains at 90.7%.