Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein warns Iran war fallout 'is going to last' even if 'there's a resolution tomorrow'

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Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein on the Iran war fallout

Europe Early Edition

Goldman Sachs’ senior chairman and ex-CEO Lloyd Blankfein has warned that the damage from the Iran war “is going to last,” even if there were “a resolution tomorrow” — and urged investors to prioritize contingency planning amid the turmoil.

Speaking with CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Wednesday, Blankfein suggested that certain parts of the market may be too complacent in their approach to the conflict, adding that it’s equally dangerous to trade on the basis that “all will be resolved” as it is to say it will “never be resolved.”

“People know that, even if it stopped tomorrow, there’s so much damage to the infrastructure that the stress is going to last longer anyway, even if there was a resolution tomorrow, and there’s no reason to think there’s a resolution tomorrow,” he said of the Middle East war.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 escalated into a regional war in which Iran has targeted energy infrastructure in neighboring countries, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and gas, has been severely disrupted.

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein speaks during Goldman Sachs analyst impact fund competition at Goldman Sachs Headquarters in New York City, U.S., November 14, 2023.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Blankfein pointed to the wild swings in energy markets in recent weeks as investors have sought to navigate the fallout from the conflict and price in the lasting impact from disrupted global oil supplies. Against this backdrop, he said investors should eschew conviction trades in favor of a more cautious approach, and “be very fleet of foot and very protective” of their positions.

“You could put on hedges, and those hedges could be worthless tomorrow, if things go another way,” Blankfein said. “I think people should be good contingency planners at this time.”

In a wide-ranging interview, Blankfein — who as CEO steered Goldman through the 2008 Global Financial Crisis — also reflected on the broader fiscal picture in the U.S. as well as potential risks arising from private markets.

He said the investment backdrop before the war in Iran was “more tailwinds than headwinds,” pointing to solid growth and a lower interest rate trajectory. “That’s all been made secondary or tertiary to what’s going on in the war and the price of energy,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said questions remain over the accuracy of valuation marks in private market funds’ portfolios, adding that assets have not been tested as equity markets have risen.

“There has to be a reckoning — we haven’t had one, and the longer between reckonings, the worse it could potentially be,” he added.

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