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Bitcoin overall exhibits a pattern of oscillation with a slight weakness, characterized by a rebound followed by a pullback. Starting from a low of around 68,880 early this morning, it experienced a modest rally, climbing within the short-term resistance zone near 71,280 before encountering resistance and pressure. The bullish momentum is gradually depleting, and the price is oscillating downward, unable to break through key resistance levels, thus maintaining a predominantly weak consolidation within the range. Ethereum's movement remains highly correlated with Bitcoin, simultaneously initiating a slight upward move from the 2,100 low, rising to around 2,165 before quickly retreating. The strength of the rally continues to be weak, and the chart shows clear signs of weakening linkage, with sustained lack of volume support for bullish attempts.
On the daily timeframe, the upward channel has shown obvious signs of a reversal. After a minor rebound and the exhaustion of bullish momentum, the price failed to sustain a strong counterattack, instead falling into a pattern of high-level consolidation and divergence between price and volume. Short-term bearish momentum is gradually building, with the MACD indicator forming a high-level death cross and continuing to diverge downward. The RSI has retreated from the neutral zone into a weak area, and the moving averages are turning downward, forming resistance. This pattern indicates that the trend has shifted from bullish dominance to bearish consolidation, with the short-term upward trend completely broken and the risk of further pullbacks increasing.
At the four-hour level, the chart continues to show a weak oscillating pattern, with prices consistently running along the lower Bollinger Band, repeatedly failing to test the upper band resistance. The technical characteristics include repeated surges to the high followed by declines, with the center of gravity gradually shifting downward, further reinforcing the foundation for daily bearish pullbacks. The current rhythm indicates that bearish momentum remains active, and short-term rebounds are not signs of trend reversal but typical trap moves designed to shake out bulls and exhaust their strength, preparing for further declines. Today's early operations should focus on establishing short positions during rebounds.
Specific trading suggestions: Continue to monitor resistance at the 71,200-71,800 and 73,800-74,500 zones. If resistance holds without being broken, consider shorting from higher levels aiming for a downside target of 5,000 to 6,000 points. Maintaining a position above 75,000 is considered a sign of trend reversal.