Ultimate Showdown? Battle for the Strait of Hormuz Emerges

U.S. military claims use of earth-penetrating bombs to strike Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz

On the 17th, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that U.S. forces used multiple 5,000-pound earth-penetrating bombs to strike Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

The message states that these locations deploy Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, which “pose a threat to international shipping within the strait.”

Recently, President Trump has repeatedly urged European countries and other allies to participate in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, complaining that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about assisting the U.S… Earlier on the 17th, Trump posted on social media that most NATO allies have informed the U.S. that they are unwilling to participate in military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, and that the U.S. no longer needs help from NATO countries and others.

International Observation | Europe-U.S. Relations Encounter “Strait of Hormuz”

Facing U.S. threats and pressure, several European countries stated on the 16th that they would not participate in the escort operation proposed by the U.S. for the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly saying “this is not Europe’s war.” President Trump complained that European allies “do not understand gratitude.”

Analysts believe that Europe’s non-cooperation is driven by domestic political pressures and practical considerations to avoid security risks, as well as an attempt to morally distance themselves from the war actions, and can also be seen as a response to Trump’s previous humiliations of Europe. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues to ferment, issues like escorting ships and the spillover effects on Ukraine are increasingly prominent, deepening transatlantic rifts.

On March 11, European Commission President von der Leyen spoke at the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg, France. She said that the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have led to tense Middle East situations, causing European citizens to suffer billions of euros in losses. Xinhua News Agency (EU source)

“Not Europe’s War”

The U.S. has been pressuring European allies for several days. On the 15th, Trump said that if NATO allies do not take action to help ensure the safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad future.” The next day, he complained that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about helping the U.S., implying that these allies, once protected by the U.S., are “ungrateful.”

Trump’s threats and complaints have met “counterattacks” from many European countries.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell directly stated on the 16th that the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran “is not Europe’s war,” and “no one wants to get involved in this war.” EU member states have no intention of expanding current escort operations in the Red Sea and Gulf regions to the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany, Italy, Spain, and others have explicitly stated they will not send ships to participate in escort. The Spanish Foreign Minister and Defense Minister directly called the U.S. military actions against Iran “illegal,” and clearly stated that Spain “will not join.” Portuguese Foreign Minister Rangel said on the 16th that Portugal “has no and will not get involved” in the current conflict. German Chancellor Mertz said that the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is not a NATO matter, and Germany will not participate.

France and the UK also expressed refusal or caution. The French Foreign Ministry stated that the French Navy will not go to the Strait of Hormuz, and its current operations in the Eastern Mediterranean follow “defensive principles.” The UK proposed that the best and most comprehensive way to ensure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is to end the conflict.

Why Europe is “not following”

Analysts believe that Europe’s lukewarm response to the U.S. escort request is due to three main considerations.

First, Europe does not want to pay for the troubles caused by the U.S. and Israel’s military actions against Iran, which were not authorized by the UN Security Council, were initiated suddenly during diplomatic negotiations, and caused significant civilian casualties, including children. This has caused widespread resentment among Europeans. Now, with the conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices, the U.S. wants to rally allies for joint escort, but Europe is reluctant to share the costs. Some Europeans have commented on social media: “The bill still came to Europe,” but “we won’t pay.”

Second, European countries are unwilling to assume the military risks of escort operations. The Strait of Hormuz is extremely dangerous. Its narrowest point is less than 40 kilometers wide, and Iran can threaten passing ships with missiles, drones, small surface vessels, and mines from its northern coast. The environment is tense, and accidents like collisions, misjudgments, or misfires are highly likely. The U.S. Navy experienced mine strikes and friendly fire incidents during escort missions in the Strait in 1988.

Third, Europeans prefer diplomatic solutions. France, Germany, and the UK, as key participants in the Iran nuclear negotiations, have experience and willingness to resolve Iran-related issues through diplomacy and can also pursue strategic interests via negotiations. They have called for diplomatic solutions to the current U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. Borrell said on the 16th that the EU is actively promoting diplomatic approaches to the Strait of Hormuz situation.

Differences between the U.S. and Europe on Iran and escort operations further reveal and deepen the rift. Notably, Iran has previously stated that it would close the Strait of Hormuz only to “enemies and their allies, and to invaders against our country.” To some extent, if European countries participate in the U.S.-proposed escort, they would be opposing Iran.

U.S. “Strategic Assist” to Russia?

Many European analysts believe that the spillover effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on Ukraine are also a significant factor in the growing rift between the U.S. and Europe.

First, increased oil revenues give Russia room to breathe. Due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have risen to their highest levels since mid-2022. As a major oil producer, Russia benefits from high oil prices, increasing its oil income. To curb oil prices, the U.S. has relaxed some sanctions on Russian oil exports, including granting India a 30-day exemption to buy Russian oil. Some European analysts see this as giving Russia, which has been under Western sanctions, a rare respite.

This photo was taken during the “Duzon Cobra 2018” joint missile defense drill at the Hatzor Air Force Base in Israel on March 8, 2018. Xinhua News Agency, Guo Yu

Second, Ukraine’s air defense capabilities are weakened. The U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system is crucial for Ukraine’s defense. The U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies have used large quantities of Patriot missiles to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the number of Patriots used in the first few days of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict exceeded Ukraine’s total usage in recent years. European media believe that as the conflict continues, more Patriots will be deployed to the Middle East, leaving gaps in Ukraine’s air defense. This increases European anxiety and concern.

Third, the growing U.S.-Europe rivalry expands Russia’s strategic space. After disagreements over military spending, tariffs, and Greenland sovereignty, the split over escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz is another manifestation of the rift. European analysts believe this “new internal conflict” will further turn U.S. aid to Ukraine into a bargaining chip. For Russia, the increasing trust gap within NATO provides more strategic room for future confrontation with the U.S. and Europe. (Reporters: Liu Pinran, Liu Zan, Song Ying)

World Watch | Can Gulf Oil Transport Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

According to data from maritime analytics firm Windward on the 15th, no ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th, the first such occurrence since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, whereas before the conflict, an average of 77 ships passed daily. Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, on the evening of the 15th, when international crude oil futures began trading for the new week, prices again surged past $100 per barrel.

Whenever tensions or war erupt, the Strait of Hormuz almost always experiences shipping disruptions or blockages, causing global oil prices to spike. Given the region’s rich oil resources, have Gulf countries tried to find alternative export routes? Is the Strait of Hormuz truly irreplaceable as the world’s key maritime oil transit route?

This photo was taken on July 21, 2019, near the Strait of Hormuz, showing the British-flagged oil tanker “Stena Impero.” Xinhua News Agency / Iranian Student News Agency

Limited Oil Pipelines

Oil pipelines are the main alternative for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but there are few such pipelines in the region, mainly two: from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline in the UAE starts from the main oil-producing region of Habshan and reaches the port of Fujairah, officially operational since July 2012. The pipeline is 420 km long, with about 405 km on land and 13.6 km underwater, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, thus bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipelines were built during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, running from the eastern oil fields in the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The total length exceeds 1,200 km. Saudi Aramco’s President and CEO Amin Nasser recently stated that the maximum sustained daily capacity is 12 million barrels, and they are maximizing the use of these pipelines to maintain supply.

According to the International Energy Agency, since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, over a quarter of crude oil and diesel transported through the Strait of Hormuz still exit the Gulf region mainly via these pipelines.

U.S. Consumer News & Business Channel cited energy analysts reporting that about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. In comparison, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipelines have a capacity of nearly 7 million barrels per day, with only about 2 million barrels used for western refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels for export. The Abu Dhabi pipeline’s rated capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day. However, due to the high risk of military strikes on oil infrastructure, analysts are conservative about current actual throughput, estimating it to be just over 70% of the rated capacity.

This photo, released by the Thai Navy on March 11, shows a Thai cargo ship caught fire after an attack in the waters near the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency, Thai Navy

The Strait of Hormuz Is Irreplaceable

The New York Times reported on the 14th that to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil transportation, many Gulf countries would need to build cross-border pipelines. However, due to geographic, political, and economic factors, laying transnational pipelines is costly and politically complicated. Qatar, for example, severed ties with the UAE in 2017 and only restored relations in 2023.

Even if bypassed, pipelines are not entirely safe. BP’s former CEO John Brown said that oil and gas facilities could become targets, and there is no “completely safe” solution. In May 2019, the Saudi east-west pipeline was interrupted after an attack by Yemen’s Houthi forces.

Besides pipelines, establishing a unified rail system for passenger and freight transport is another option. Although proposed for over a decade, practical implementation remains uncertain. The NYT notes that compared to building pipelines, creating a multi-national oil export system is more complex and hindered by economic and political constraints.

In response to U.S. efforts to block oil exports, Iran in July 2021 activated a land-based pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, extending 1,000 km from Ghol in Iran’s Bushehr Province to Jask port in Oman Bay.

Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical maritime route for oil transportation. As the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the outside world, over a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this strait to destinations worldwide.

The International Energy Agency estimates that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply declined, less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. Many oil-exporting countries have reduced production due to lack of transportation channels. Norway’s Rystad Energy estimates that Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have collectively reduced their output by several million barrels over the past week.

As of the 11th, the region’s oil-producing countries are estimated to have cut at least 10 million barrels per day, about 10% of global supply. With many refineries shutting down or reducing capacity, the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is also decreasing.