#创作者冲榜 Global Markets in Shock - One Harrowing Day! Gold Plunges 10%, A-Shares and Hong Kong Stocks Tumble, Only Bitcoin Holds Firm

Recent global financial markets are being violently shaken by an unresolved geopolitical conflict. The US-Iran military standoff has persisted for nearly a month without signs of easing, with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, choking off over 20% of global crude oil transportation. Oil prices have surged rapidly, pushing up inflation expectations, completely reversing Fed rate-cut expectations and even sparking renewed calls for rate hikes. A chain reaction of panic triggered by energy is sweeping through stocks, bonds, commodities, and currency markets.

Gold Collapsed: Most Severe Decline in 43 Years, Falling from 1250 yuan/gram to 930 yuan in Over a Month

Most alarming is the crash in the precious metals market. Just over a month ago, gold was trading at over 1200 yuan/gram, but today it has plummeted to over 930 yuan, with a single-day drop approaching 10%. A gut-wrenching drop over a month has created the most severe decline in a single week in nearly 43 years.

The logic is clear: oil-exporting Middle Eastern nations facing blocked crude exports and dried-up fiscal revenues are forced to liquidate gold holdings at high prices to rebuild liquidity. Combined with gold's sustained rally over recent years and ample profit-taking opportunities, incoming risk events triggered early selling of high-priced assets, completely igniting panic sentiment.

Global Stock Markets Bloodbath: Japanese, Korean, A-Shares, and Hong Kong Stocks All Plunge Panic sentiment spreads from commodities to equities as Asian markets gap down at market open.

• South Korean stock market drops over 6% in a single day
• Shanghai Composite tumbles over 4% at one point, ending down 3.6%, with over 5,100 individual stocks in red
• Hang Seng Index breaks through 4% decline

Markets are concerned that with crude oil surging to $120/barrel, import-dependent Asian and Southeast Asian economies will face imported inflation and economic recession pressures, causing funds to flee at any cost. While US stock markets have shown relative resilience, the three major stock index futures opened lower in advance, with US stocks following suit, as global risk assets face a new round of sentiment capitulation.

Bitcoin Is Different: Crashed Early, Becomes a "Safe Haven Valley"

In a market experiencing across-the-board crashes, Bitcoin has carved its own independent path.

Already six months ago, Bitcoin led the adjustment with cumulative declines exceeding 50%, fully releasing risk.

When this round of geopolitical conflict erupted, it did not cascade down with gold and stocks, merely having its rebound rhythm disrupted.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's monthly chart has closed with 5 consecutive red candles, and March, as the 6th month, currently shows a stabilizing positive close.

Historically, Bitcoin has never experienced the extreme pattern of 6 consecutive monthly red candles. Continuous decline over a year with no rebound contradicts market mechanics. Current daily, weekly, and monthly indicators are all in the bottom range, with downside space extremely limited.

Chart signals confirm resilience: After Bitcoin dropped to around $60,000, the frequency of sharp declines notably decreased; altcoins also stabilized, with Bitcoin down 1%-2% while small-cap coins no longer experience 10%-20% crashes. Market selling pressure is nearly exhausted.

Fear Index Hits Bottom: Extreme Fear Reaches Record High, Bottom Being Brewed

Market sentiment has plummeted to freezing point: The Fear & Greed Index9 returns to single digits, entering the extreme fear zone.

Year-to-date, the market has spent 70 days in extreme fear, accounting for 19.18% of the time—nearly one-fifth of the year in extreme panic. This is historically rare.

Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation deteriorated further, with panic accumulated during the market close concentrating its release in Asian trading.

Forward Outlook: Once conflict eases, across-the-board recovery will come.

The market's core contradiction is singular: When will the US-Iran conflict end and the Strait of Hormuz reopen to navigation? Once both sides reach peace talks and oil transport returns to normal, falling oil prices and easing inflation pressures will be massive tailwinds for global financial markets and economies, with previously oversold assets experiencing rapid recovery.

For Bitcoin, bear markets never consist of straight drops. Historically, each major bear market has seen 2-3 interim oversold bounces, often ranging 30%-50%. With this adjustment already lasting six months and losses at 50%, the probability of continued single-sided decline through October is extremely low. As Bitcoin's market cap expands and traditional institutional capital continues to flow in, $60,000 likely marks the bear market bottom zone for this cycle.

As long as the geopolitical situation doesn't deteriorate further, Bitcoin in March is expected to stabilize with a positive monthly close, returning above $70,000. Global markets are experiencing a typical risk event shock, with gold and stocks experiencing delayed declines at elevated levels, while Bitcoin—having adjusted early—actually possesses relative value advantage. When panic peaks, it's often the window for positioning ahead of bounces. Patiently awaiting conflict easing, markets will deliver a recovery rally.