Oil falls and shares rebound after Trump says talks have been held to end war

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Nick Edserand

Peter Hoskins,Business reporters

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AFP via Getty Images

Oil prices plunged and stock markets rebounded after Donald Trump said the US would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants, citing “constructive” discussions about ending the conflict in the Middle East.

The US president wrote on social media that the two countries had held talks about a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL” resolution - but Iran denied these talks had happened.

The price of Brent crude sank, while European and US shares rose following Trump’s statement.

Trump had previously said he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz shipping route was not reopened in 48 hours. Iran had said it would respond by targeting key infrastructure in the region.

The comments over the weekend had rattled financial markets, adding to fears that the US-Israeli war with Iran would be a prolonged conflict.

At one point on Monday, the price of Brent had hit $113 a barrel, but it tumbled in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s latest comments. It fell to a low of $96 a barrel, before rebounding a bit.

While oil fell, stocks rose. London’s FTSE 100 index ended the day flat after being down more than 2% earlier on Monday.

Germany’s Dax index also rebounded to close 1.2% higher while France’s Cac ended up roughly 0.9%.

In the US, the S&P 500 index rose more than 1.1%, while the Dow Jones closed nearly 1.4% higher.

Stocks in Asia, which closed before Trump’s latest comments, had seen heavy falls with Japan’s Nikkei index dropping 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi down 6.5%.

Japan and South Korea have been particularly affected by the conflict, as they are heavily dependent on oil and gas that would normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping channels.

Since the war began on 28 February, Iran has effectively blocked the waterway. About 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas usually passes through the strait - and the conflict has sent global fuel prices soaring.

In the Monday morning post on Truth Social, written in all capital letters, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks over the weekend about “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities”.

He said based on the “tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations” he had instructed the military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

That decision was “subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions,” he added.

However, Iran’s foreign ministry then issued a statement, which said: “We deny what US President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament wrote on X.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said Trump’s comments had taken markets on a “wild ride”.

However, she added: “Clinging to President Trump’s words is fraught with risks, given how hopes have already risen and then been dashed over the last four weeks.”

She also noted that with oil still above $100 a barrel, “energy costs will remain super-painful for companies and consumers”.

“It’s clear that traders are still expecting significantly lower flows from the Middle East, even if a ceasefire is agreed, given the disruption to supply routes and the damage to facilities.”

The conflict has already disrupted global energy supplies, pushing up prices and causing fuel shortages.

Earlier on Monday, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, had warned the war could see the world facing its worst energy crisis in decades.

Birol compared the current energy crisis to those of the 1970s and the impact of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” he said, speaking at an event in Australia.

The jump in oil and gas prices since the start of the conflict has raised fears of a sharp increase in domestic energy bills in the UK later this year.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Trump on Sunday and they discussed the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Later on Monday, Sir Keir is set to chair a meeting of the government’s emergency Cobra committee, which will be attended by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

The meeting, which was arranged before Trump’s latest comments, is expected to focus on energy security and the resilience of supply chains, and discuss the impact of the war on the cost of living.

UK government borrowing costs have been rising rapidly over the past few days, and on Friday they hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

On Monday, the yield - or interest rate - on government borrowing over a 10-year period rose to 5.12% at one point, before dropping to about 4.9% after Trump’s comments.

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