Trump Resurrects "TACO," Bitcoin Quietly Wins Against Gold

Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

On March 23, Trump posted on Truth Social, announcing that the military strike on Iran’s power facilities has been delayed by five days, citing “very good and productive dialogue” over the past two days. Less than five minutes after this message was released, global markets sharply reversed, with Brent crude oil plunging over 11% to break below $100 per barrel, spot gold briefly surged over $100 to re-enter the $4,400 range, and S&P 500 futures jumped.

Bitcoin then surged from around $68,000 to a high of $71,800, approximately a 5% daily increase, currently trading around $70,600. ETH rose from $2,050 to $2,200, now at $2,140. Altcoins broadly gained.

Regarding liquidation data, according to Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $660 million in liquidations, with longs totaling about $289 million and shorts about $370 million. Bitcoin liquidations amounted to approximately $207 million, and Ethereum liquidations to about $169 million.

At the close, the S&P 500’s gains narrowed from 2.2% to 1.2%. The bond market’s rebound also partially retraced. The market seems to have understood the essence of this message—Trump is eager to cut losses, but the war is not over.

Trump said “talks are good,” Iran called it “fake news,” and the market only believed it for an hour.

Around 7 p.m. on the 23rd, Trump posted that the US and Iran had “very good and productive dialogue” regarding “a comprehensive resolution of hostile actions in the Middle East,” and that the plan to strike Iran’s power facilities had been postponed by five days.

According to Axios, Trump told reporters that his special envoy had met with a senior Iranian official, claiming that both sides had reached agreements on many issues. An Israeli official told Axios that U.S. envoy Wittekov and Kushner had spoken with Iranian Parliament Speaker Kaliabaf. However, Trump did not disclose the identities of the dialogue participants, saying he did not want them to be harmed, but he stated that the U.S. and Iran share similar stances on many key issues.

Trump said: “I think the person we are dealing with is the most respected figure, but not the Supreme Leader. We haven’t heard from him yet,” and indicated that the two sides would continue talks by phone, possibly followed by face-to-face meetings. An Israeli official revealed that mediators are trying to convene a meeting in Islamabad, with Kaliabaf and other officials representing Tehran, and Wittekov, Kushner, and possibly Vice President Vance representing the U.S. The meeting might be held later this week.

Subsequently, Iran responded point by point, with none of their statements aligning with Trump’s version.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry first stated that Trump’s remarks “aim to lower energy prices and buy time for his military plans,” asserting that the war was initiated by the U.S. and that dialogue requests should be directed to America. Iran’s state TV headline characterized the situation as “Under Iran’s decisive threat, the U.S. President retreats.”

The most damaging rebuttal came from Kaliabaf himself, who said, “There are no such talks with the U.S. at all. The so-called ‘fake news’ is meant to manipulate financial and oil markets… Until the goal of punishing the aggressor is fully achieved, all Iranian officials will firmly support the Supreme Leader and the people.”

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency also denied reports of talks between Iranian Parliament Speaker Kaliabaf and U.S. officials, claiming that certain parties are attempting to create “political and social rifts” in Iran, calling it a “big lie.” A senior Iranian security official described Trump’s statements as “psychological warfare,” saying “it has long since failed.”

Iranian officials state that the war will continue until all losses are compensated.

This is the real situation where the “TACO deal” is failing. Over the past year, every time Trump implemented aggressive policies that caused market crashes—imposing tariffs, threatening to annex Greenland, criticizing the Federal Reserve—the same logic was validated, conditioning traders to buy on dips.

But tariffs can be canceled by a simple order, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be unilaterally opened by Trump. RBC strategist Tom Garretson pointed out that what might force Trump to act is likely the bond market. Since the outbreak of war, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen over 0.5 percentage points, pushing up mortgage rates and corporate financing costs. BCA Research chief strategist Marko Papic said today, “This statement shows Trump realizes the real economy might be on the brink.”

Hirtle Callaghan CIO Brad Conger was more direct, stating, “This is no longer something Trump can decide unilaterally. Those encouraged by Trump’s market reactions are placing their confidence in the wrong place.”

Four weeks into the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin still holds around $70,000.

Since the launch of “Operation Epic Fury” by the US and Israel on February 28, and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, Bitcoin has traded between $63,000 and $76,000. After the war started, BTC surged about 20%, currently about 12% above the February 28 level, while gold fell 17%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined over 4%. This marks Bitcoin’s first time recently outperforming all traditional safe-haven assets in a major geopolitical event.

Since the conflict began, crude oil has risen 53%, fueling inflation expectations and prompting markets to bet on global central banks raising interest rates. Bonds have been sold off, with the global bond market losing over $2.5 trillion in March alone, the largest monthly decline in three years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown more resilience compared to stocks and tech shares.

One of the driving forces behind this is institutional participation. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index turned positive for the first time in 40 days on March 2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced four consecutive weeks of net inflows, with $1.1 billion in inflows over three trading days from March 2 to 4—one of the largest single inflow periods of the quarter. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for more than half of the three-day inflows, attracting about $652 million.

However, by mid to late March, on-chain data showed clear signs of cooling. Glassnode reports that weekly net inflows into spot ETFs dropped from $791.1 million to $152.6 million, a decline of over 80%. ETF MVRV fell from 1.27 to 1.12, indicating compressed profit margins for institutional holdings and increased downside sensitivity. Active on-chain addresses remain around 630,000, at the lower end of the statistical range, with capital rotation slowing significantly and the capital structure leaning toward defense.

Hot Capital Share (recent new capital entry proportion) fell to 21.9%, and the short-term holder supply ratio (STH/LTH) stayed at 16.7%. The market is primarily dominated by long-term holders, with new capital participation at low levels. The 25-Delta Skew in options rose to 14.03%, with put options premiums continuing to increase, indicating rising hedging demand.

Realized Cap Change narrowed from -1.1% to -0.8%, showing a slowdown in net capital outflows, but still negative, indicating selling pressure has not substantially shifted. Glassnode summarized: “The market is entering an consolidation phase, activity is softening, defensive positioning is emerging, and initial signs of stabilization are appearing in both spot and derivatives markets.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a day, and nothing is over.

Trump’s five-day delay covers this week. According to Reuters, Vance and special envoys Wittekov and Kushner may meet with Iranian officials in Islamabad this week, with Pakistan acting as mediator.

The most critical point for markets is whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen. This vital shipping lane, carrying about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, remains closed. Until then, the single-day decline in oil prices is just a pause; inflationary pressure from rising bond yields will not substantially ease, and the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates will not expand. For Bitcoin, geopolitical uncertainty both suppresses its momentum to break above $76,000 and provides a support level below.

Perhaps in five days, the market will have an answer.