Crypto Fear and Greed Index Plummets to 17, Signaling Intensified Bitcoin Weakness

Recently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a psychological indicator of the cryptocurrency market, has fallen to an extreme fear level of 17. This is an important signal showing how investors perceive the market and clearly demonstrates how much the market is currently in a state of contraction.

More than 30% of the year dominated by fear

Over the past year, the Fear and Greed Index has spent more than 30% of the measurement period in the fear or extreme fear zones. This goes beyond simple statistics, reflecting the psychological pressure experienced by investors. Since the large liquidation crash in October, the market sentiment has remained unsettled and anxious for about five months.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $70,630, about 43% below its all-time high of $126,080. Investors remain cautious, and a bearish sentiment is widespread across the market.

Death Cross formation signals technical weakness

On November 21, Bitcoin formed a Death Cross, a technical signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This coincides with a local low of around $80,000.

Notably, all Death Crosses in this cycle since 2023 have marked significant lows. This pattern indicates that this signal is not just a technical downside but also a contrarian indicator for market direction.

Co-movement with the US stock market, worsening investor sentiment

A similar phenomenon is occurring in the US stock market. Despite the S&P 500 trading near its all-time high of around 6,827, the CNN Fear and Greed Index remains at 42, still in the fear zone. This shows a disconnect between price and sentiment, indicating ongoing investor anxiety in both the cryptocurrency and US stock markets.

Geopolitical risks and short-term recovery potential

Recently, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five-day extension of the halt in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Bitcoin maintained some gains above $70,000. The altcoin market also responded positively, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rising about 5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased approximately 1.2%.

However, analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s next direction depends on oil prices and the stability of maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. In a positive scenario, Bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$76,000 range, but if negative trends persist, prices could fall into the mid-$60,000s.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a combination of technical weakness and psychological anxiety, waiting for a recovery at lows similar to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Investors are proceeding cautiously, and geopolitical factors along with macroeconomic conditions are likely to be key to market rebound.