Is "Second Education" Shutting Down Due to Losses and Policy Pressure?

(Source: Pig Helmet)

Recently, walking through the trading markets in major pig-producing regions across the country, the most direct feeling is that the customers who last year around this time were busy asking for prices around the standard pigs, rushing to transport pigs for secondary fattening, are almost gone this year. From the temporary hot market last year, to the continued quietness after the spring this year, and then to the special meeting held by the authorities in mid-March, the entire industry has hardly heard any voices of bottom-fishing for secondary fattening. Once a short-term driver of pig price trends and considered by many as a “bottom-fishing tool” for the market, secondary fattening has now completely “faded out.”

Industry monitoring data clearly confirms this change. As of mid-March 2026, the nationwide secondary fattening entry volume was only about a quarter of the same period last year. Monitored by Zhuochuang Information, after the Spring Festival, the average proportion of pigs entering secondary fattening channels among sampled enterprises’ slaughtered pigs was only 10.66%. Even when it slightly rebounded to 13.69% in early March, it was still far below the peak levels of last year, and restocking has always been mainly small batches testing the waters, never forming a trend of concentrated entry. Previously, secondary fattening was the core support during pig price lows, but even as pig prices continued to decline to recent lows this year, it failed to trigger concentrated entry of secondary fattening pigs. Its supporting role for pig prices has almost completely disappeared.

1. Continuous losses have worn down the confidence to enter

The cooling down of secondary fattening has never happened overnight. Last year, many industry peers entered with the mindset of bottom-fishing, thinking that short-term fattening of standard pigs would quickly boost the market and earn a profit. However, with pig prices fluctuating downward throughout the year and the peak season not performing well, most secondary fattening batches ended up at a loss. Especially in the second half of last year, the concentrated entry of secondary fattening pigs led to a pile-up of pigs being slaughtered, which further drove down pig prices. Many not only failed to earn the expected profits but also incurred additional costs for high-priced feed and labor. Before the Spring Festival, which is traditionally a peak season for pork consumption, many tried to make a last-ditch effort to restock, but pig prices dropped rapidly from 12.5 yuan/kg to 11 yuan/kg in December, causing another round of losses for industry practitioners.

Over time, everyone’s confidence in this “gambling on the market” model shifted from initial herd mentality to cautious observation. Many seasoned industry peers openly admit, “I’m afraid of losing money, I won’t touch it anymore.” For frontline pig farmers, every penny invested is hard-earned money from day and night efforts. Continuous losses have first worn down the confidence to bottom-fish, and even when opportunities appear sporadically, no one dares to gamble with real money on uncertain market trends.

2. Policy implementation

Completely shutting down secondary fattening operations

If continuous losses made everyone “fearful,” then on March 19, the joint meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs with leading pig enterprises pushed secondary fattening into a “forbidden zone.” The meeting explicitly required a comprehensive ban on selling pigs to secondary fattening channels, emphasizing strict control of slaughter weights around 120 kg, directly equating secondary fattening with irrational behaviors that disrupt market rhythm and intensify price fluctuations.

Previously, industry control over secondary fattening mainly involved discouraging or restricting the flow of pigs from top-tier enterprises, leaving some room for small farmers and medium-sized pig farms to operate. But this time, the requirements covered the entire pig sales chain, coupled with measures like slaughter registration and quarantine supervision, cutting off the supply of pigs for secondary fattening from the source. More critically, strict control of slaughter weight at 120 kg directly dismantled the core profit logic of secondary fattening. We all know that part of the profit from secondary fattening comes from price swings and the difference between standard pig prices at larger weights. But now, not only are the nationwide standard pig price differences inverted, but weight gain itself has no profit margin. With policies explicitly prohibiting weight gain through overfeeding, the two constraints leave no operational path for secondary fattening. After the meeting was implemented, the previously tentative restocking actions almost completely stopped, even in the low-price northeastern region, no longer seeing concentrated entry.

Looking back, the decline of secondary fattening is fundamentally determined by the broader industry environment. As of now, the national breeding sow inventory remains above normal levels, and overall pig supply is ample. After the Spring Festival, it coincides with the traditional off-season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand and no clear upward price expectation. Coupled with persistently high feed costs, the feed-to-meat ratio for secondary fattening is higher than for self-bred or conventional fattening, giving no cost advantage. The core logic of “buy low, sell high” has long been untenable. Previously, secondary fattening was a market hotspot because everyone hoped to catch a rising trend. But when there’s no clear upward market expectation, continuous losses scare people away, and with strict policy controls, the decline of secondary fattening was already inevitable.

For frontline pig farmers, the rise and fall of secondary fattening is just another reflection of the industry’s cyclical nature. We all want to earn more during good times and look for safer ways during fluctuations. But now, relying on gambling on market trends through secondary fattening has become increasingly unfeasible. Markets will always have ups and downs. Instead of chasing uncertain swings, it’s better to focus on managing your own farm well—raise good pigs, control costs, follow industry regulations, and steadily do your job. That’s the most reliable way to cope with market fluctuations.