Cryptocurrency Market Turbulence: Dollar Strength and Geopolitical Risks Pressure Coin Prices

In cryptocurrency market analysis, major assets like Bitcoin are experiencing a correction phase, reflecting a complex market environment. Over the past 24 hours, the market has faced many headwinds, but some bullish signals have also been detected.

Recent Trends of Bitcoin and Major Cryptocurrencies

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $70.94K, up 4.40% in the last 24 hours. However, over the past seven days, it has experienced a downward pressure of 5.11%, indicating significant weekly volatility.

The 24-hour performance of major assets is as follows:

• Ethereum (ETH): $2.15K, up 4.73% in 24 hours, down 8.39% over 7 days
• Solana (SOL): $91.47, up 6.06% in 24 hours
• Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.09, up 4.51% in 24 hours
• BNB (Binance Coin): $639.20, up 2.05% in 24 hours, down 5.88% over 7 days
• XRP (Ripple): $1.43, up 3.39% in 24 hours

These assets showed strong rebounds mid-week but have struggled recently due to profit-taking in the latest sessions.

US Dollar Strengthening and Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Pressure Market

The most concerning factor for the market is the dollar’s significant weekly rise for the first time in a year. Bjoern Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, points out that rising energy costs and persistent inflation pressures are increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay interest rate cuts.

This environment is a direct headwind for dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Investors are accelerating capital flows into safe-haven assets like the US dollar, making risk assets relatively weaker. Tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel this trend, which is likely to persist.

On-Chain Data Indicating Potential Market Risks

According to Glassnode’s data analysis, about 43% of Bitcoin supply is currently in loss. This fact creates significant selling pressure during price rallies.

Holders with unrealized losses are incentivized to sell once the price reaches breakeven, locking in losses. The inability to sustain the $74,000 level last Thursday was partly due to this supply-side pressure. Each upward price movement faces ongoing resistance from sellers waiting for a chance to sell after months of accumulation.

Stablecoin Inflows Suggest Market Recovery Scenario

There are also positive signs in market analysis. According to a Messari report, weekly net stablecoin inflows increased by 415%, reaching $1.7 billion. This inflow suggests that retail investors are not fully retreating from the market despite fears.

If waiting capital flows into major assets like Bitcoin, it could lay the groundwork for the next rally. The key to breaking out of the current range-bound state is tracking these pending funds.

Geopolitical Risks: US and Iran Tensions Shaping Market Environment

One of the dominant factors influencing the current market environment is rising oil prices driven by US-Iran tensions. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, energy costs are likely to stay high.

A strong US dollar, persistent inflation, and delayed rate cuts create a worst-case scenario for risk assets. Until these conditions change, volatility in the cryptocurrency market is expected to continue.

Market Outlook: Future Scenarios and Investor Guidance

Several analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s next major move depends on stabilizing oil prices and improving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a bullish scenario, stabilized energy markets could ease inflation concerns and support a retest of the $74,000 to $76,000 range. Conversely, if conditions worsen, prices could retreat to the mid-$60,000s.

The intra-week oscillation between $68,000 and $74,000 reflects the market’s search for a range, with a breakout contingent on resolving geopolitical risks and easing dollar pressure. Market participants should closely monitor these macroeconomic factors.