Bitcoin Poised for Major Rebound in 2026 as VanEck Turns Bullish

After a challenging 2025, Bitcoin is set up for a significant recovery next year, according to asset management firm VanEck. The cryptocurrency has underperformed relative to traditional safe havens and technology stocks, but this apparent weakness is creating the conditions for a powerful comeback in 2026. Investors asking when crypto will rebound may find the answer lies in understanding the macroeconomic forces now gathering strength.

Why Bitcoin Lagged Behind This Past Year

Bitcoin has disappointed investors throughout 2025, trailing the Nasdaq 100 by approximately 50 percentage points. Despite widespread expectations that rising inflation and currency devaluation would fuel gains in hard assets, BTC stumbled as risk appetite softened and liquidity tightened in global markets. Currently trading around $70.71K with a one-year decline of 15.44%, the world’s largest cryptocurrency faced headwinds that caught many analysts off guard.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and gold both outpaced Bitcoin’s performance, with gold alone surging over 70% during the year. This performance gap, however, tells an important story—not one of fundamental weakness, but of cyclical rotation and positioning ahead of a major inflection point.

The Setup for Crypto’s Recovery: Liquidity Returns and Currency Devaluation Accelerates

David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, offers a compelling thesis for why Bitcoin rebounds are coming. The structural case for digital scarce assets remains fundamentally intact, despite near-term price pressure. “As currency devaluation accelerates and liquidity conditions normalize, Bitcoin historically responds sharply,” Schassler explained in the firm’s recently published outlook.

The VanEck team isn’t sitting passively—they’ve begun accumulating positions ahead of the anticipated recovery. The logic is straightforward: governments worldwide are increasingly relying on monetary expansion to fund growing liabilities and policy objectives. This dynamic channels investor capital toward genuine stores of scarcity value, whether digital or physical.

When liquidity eventually returns to markets—a process already showing early signs—Bitcoin’s historical trading patterns suggest a powerful recovery phase. The stage is being set for a dramatic shift in relative performance between risk assets and safety plays.

Gold and Hard Assets Leading the New Commodity Cycle

Gold serves as the lead indicator in this broader trend toward hard assets. Having already demonstrated impressive strength with its 70%+ gain this year, the yellow metal is expected to extend its rally, with VanEck projecting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026—representing further upside from current levels near $4,492.

This momentum in precious metals reflects more than mere speculation. Infrastructure demands from artificial intelligence, the global energy transition, robotics development, and re-industrialization are driving genuine demand for natural resources. These “old-world assets,” as Schassler describes them, form the foundation for tomorrow’s economic structure. Bitcoin’s rebound potential sits alongside this broader hard asset rotation.

Why 2026 Marks a Turning Point for Cryptocurrency

The convergence of several factors positions 2026 as a potential inflection year for digital assets. Monetary debasement is accelerating worldwide, technological advancement continues unabated, and investor demand for scarce, uncorrelated stores of value is rising. VanEck’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s current underperformance versus other assets has created a valuation disconnect that typically precedes significant outperformance.

The thesis connecting currency devaluation, hard asset demand, and digital scarcity offers a roadmap for understanding where crypto rebounds might originate. As macroeconomic conditions evolve and market liquidity conditions shift, Bitcoin could reclaim its position as a top performer—exactly the opposite trajectory from 2025’s disappointing returns.