gmgm

trump just came out saying the us will pause strikes on iranian infrastructure for a few days
don’t get too bullish off this headline pump
this could very well just be a statement to buy time (for example to prepare boots on the ground or make deals with allies to occupy hormuz)
iran isn’t some clean, unified decision maker
it’s a fragmented system with different factions and power centers
whoever is at the negotiation table doesn’t speak for everyone
so even if something gets “agreed”, it doesn’t mean it actually sticks
to me this feels more like short term de-escalation talk than anything final
not something i’d base a full shift in bias on
i still think this whole situation drags on for a while
months at least, maybe longer
with chop in between
but yeah, if we do somehow get a real resolution
then there’s definitely solid upside on the table
just not something i’d bet on being solved overnight