Bitcoin Realization Account Shows Pressure on LTH, Analysts Warn of Capitulation Symptoms

Realized account data from long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) is now a major focus for market analysts, as this metric provides an in-depth view of institutional investors’ profit positions. As the Bitcoin market continues to face pressure, LTH realized accounts have shown signs of significant tension, reflecting investors’ mental resilience amid ongoing price declines.

According to CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost,’ long-term holders currently hold an average profit of around 74%, although this profit margin continues to shrink. This occurs as Bitcoin’s price approaches the average cost basis of LTH, estimated to be around $38,900. This development is critical to monitor, as historical data shows that whenever the price drops below this level, realized accounts tend to exhibit a substantial final wave of selling.

Realized Account Data: LTH Profit Margins Continue to Shrink

Darkfost’s analysis of historical cycles reveals a consistent pattern: each bearish phase is marked by realized losses reaching about 20% of total holdings. When this phenomenon occurs, the market has usually hit its bottom, and recovery begins to enter the early phase. In the context of realized accounts, this momentum indicates that investors have reached a total surrender phase before liquidity returns to the market.

Glassnode reports that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has now fallen below 1, a signal confirming a full shift into an overextended loss realization regime. This interpretation of the realized account metric aligns with Darkfost’s analysis: such bearish conditions historically last at least 6 months before liquidity flows flood back into the market.

Bear Market Characterized by Massive Realized Losses

Analyst James Check offers an additional concerning perspective: Bitcoin has nearly recorded five consecutive monthly red candles, a rare condition following the largest volatility spike in this entire market cycle. During the same period, realized weekly volatility surged over 150%, a level typically seen around market capitulation events.

The weekly technical RSI indicator for Bitcoin now shows an “oversold” reading among the most extreme in the history of this digital asset. This phenomenon is reinforced by the fact that approximately $70 billion in BTC holdings have shifted into new hands within the $60,000 to $70,000 price range during this period.

Technical Indicators Confirm Final Selling Phase

Data from analyst James Van Straten shows that Bitcoin supply in loss has reached 10 million coins— the fourth highest reading ever. This indicates an extraordinary level of investor pain. Van Straten notes that circulating supply will surpass 20 million BTC soon, with 50% in loss positions. In terms of realized accounts, this phenomenon is a strong indicator of the scale of capital destruction needed to reach the bottom of the bear market.

“History shows that such levels of capital damage are a convincing signal to look for market bottom formation,” Van Straten said, emphasizing the relevance of realized accounts in identifying market turning points.

Fragile Technical Recovery Amid Bearish Sentiment

There was a slight rebound during early Wednesday trading in the Asia zone, with Bitcoin rising $2,000 back to $66,000. However, in the context of broader market momentum, this move feels less organic and is not supported by the majority of market participants. Realized account data also does not show significant liquidity inflows, meaning this recovery bounce is more of a technical rebound than a fundamental shift in sentiment.

Technically, this movement has formed a lower high, while the $60,000 level remains a support for lower lows. From the perspective of realized accounts and market psychology, the current position is still far from where investors can confidently hold their positions without fear of the next round.