Gold forecast for the first quarter: analysts see consolidation around five thousand

Precious metals enter a sideways phase after a period of fundamental growth. Sucden Financial analysts maintain their gold forecast at around $5,000 per ounce through Q1 2026, despite the correction that occurred in mid-February due to profit-taking and decreased trading volumes during holiday periods.

February correction: what happened to gold prices

Spot gold fell about 1% in mid-February, dropping to $4,993 per ounce. This downward movement was driven by three factors: investors realizing accumulated profits, a strengthening US dollar, and minimal trading volumes amid holidays in the US and China.

However, on a longer-term horizon, the outlook remains bullish. The metal gained over 6% in a month and has increased 72% over the past year. The only obstacle for the price is the January peak above $5,600, which remains out of reach at the moment.

White silver experienced a more significant decline of 1.6% on the same day, falling to approximately $76.73 per ounce. Over the year, this metal has risen nearly 137%, but it shows higher volatility due to its dual nature—as both an investment asset and an industrial raw material.

Macroeconomics driving demand for precious metals

Daria Yefanova, head of research at Sucden Financial, and senior analyst Victoria Kushak note that gold prices increasingly reflect global macroeconomic and political uncertainty. “Precious metals have become an indicator of distrust in macroeconomics and politics, although short-term price jumps are driven by speculative flows,” according to the quarterly metals report.

Demand growth is supported from below by strong investment interest. In 2025, total gold demand surpassed 5,000 tons for the first time in history, thanks to central bank purchases from various countries and significant capital inflows into gold ETFs.

Analysts expect gold to consolidate for the rest of the quarter, with prices remaining within a range and fluctuating in both directions. Corrections should serve as revaluations of speculative positions rather than signals of a structural trend reversal.

Factors influencing price movements in the near future

Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve communications, including FOMC minutes and economic data (GDP, consumer price index for inflation assessment). The market currently prices in expectations of several rate cuts of 25 basis points this year.

Despite ongoing recession risks related to labor market weakness and escalating geopolitical tensions, Sucden’s baseline stance points to sideways movement rather than a prolonged decline.

Gold’s dual role—as both a speculative instrument and a traditional safe-haven asset—appears to keep its price around the $5,000 threshold. The late-January sell-off, which temporarily pushed the price down to around $4,500, was overestimated by the market after prices rose above $5,400, demonstrating the resilience of the bullish scenario.

Frequently Asked Questions about the gold market situation

Why did the correction occur in February?
The price decline was driven by profit-taking by participants, US dollar strengthening, and low liquidity amid US and Chinese holidays.

What is Sucden’s gold forecast for Q1?
The company expects sideways movement around $5,000 per ounce during the first quarter, with periodic two-way fluctuations.

Is gold still in an uptrend?
The report suggests consolidation amid supportive macro factors. This is not a sign of a sustainable reversal into a bearish trend but rather a pause before potential further growth.

How does silver compare to gold?
Silver shows more significant fluctuations due to its industrial component. It fell 1.6% during the correction and remains a more volatile asset, though it has demonstrated an impressive 137% increase over the year.