Peter Brandt Updated Bitcoin's True Bottom Forecast: October 2026 as Critical Point

According to ChainCatcher, renowned technical analyst and trader Peter Brandt, whose successful prediction of a bear market in 2018 cemented his reputation in the industry, is once again drawing attention with his forecast. This time, the analyst is confident that current price levels may not be the true bottom of the Bitcoin market. Based on his calculations, the real bottom may only occur in October 2026, making this period potentially decisive for long-term investors.

Peter Brandt’s Scenario: Stages of Decline and Recovery

Peter Brandt structures his forecast around several key stages. First, he believes that in the second quarter of 2026, Bitcoin could test the $60,000 level. However, before reaching the October bottom, he expects the price to experience short-term upward fluctuations. Throughout the year, Bitcoin may repeatedly return to the high $50,000 range, indicating market consolidation before the final bottom.

As of the writing of this article (March 23, 2026), Bitcoin was trading at $68,460, showing a 0.74% increase over the past 30 days. This means the asset remains significantly above the expected Q2 levels, leaving room for the long-term correction movement anticipated by the analyst.

Diverging Opinions: Other Voices in the Market

However, Peter Brandt’s opinion is not the only one in the market. Arthur Hayes, an influential member of the crypto community, has expressed a different view on Ethereum. He suggests that the recovery of Ethereum’s price depends on improving the liquidity of dollar positions, and until that happens, the asset will remain in its current range. Currently, Ethereum is trading at around $2,050, up 4.30% over the month, which contrasts with the pessimistic scenario of a more than 40% decline described in the original information.

Contrasting views are offered by Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital. He assesses that current Ethereum prices create attractive positioning opportunities. Van de Poppe points to a significant increase in stablecoin trading volumes—about 200% over the past 18 months—which, in his opinion, indicates growing market interest despite current price challenges.

Market Probabilities: What Polymarket Forecasts

Data from the market prediction platform Polymarket provides a quantitative assessment of market expectations. As of the end of February 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 is estimated at 41%, while the chance of recovering to $75,000 is 29%. These probabilities indicate a divided market regarding the short-term direction.

Looking at 2026 as a whole, the market estimates only a 23% chance that Bitcoin will reach $120,000. Even more conservatively, the market assigns just a 10% probability of surpassing $150,000. As for Ethereum, the market gives a 76% chance of reaching $1,500 in 2026, but also sees a 23% chance of falling to $1,600, reflecting uncertainty in predicting this asset’s dynamics.

Thus, Peter Brandt’s forecast of October 2026 as the true bottom fits into a broader picture of market uncertainty, where various analysts propose competing scenarios for the development of the cryptocurrency market.