Largest Release of Oil Reserves in History, Why Are Oil Prices Still Above 100+?

The Largest Oil Reserve Release in History: Why Are Oil Prices Still Over $100?

By BlockBeats

400 million barrels. This is the largest strategic oil reserve release by the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 50-year history. On March 11, when the IEA announced this decision, Brent crude oil closed at $90.42. Today, 12 days later, prices are above $107.

The story begins on February 28. After the US and Israel launched a joint strike against Iran, Iran threatened to attack oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, nearly paralyzing one of the world’s most critical oil transportation chokepoints. According to IEA data, current actual traffic through the strait is less than 10% of pre-war levels. Brent crude surged from about $65 before the conflict, reaching $119.50 intraday on March 9, an increase of nearly 80% in two weeks.

Against this backdrop, the IEA activated its most powerful tool. The question is, why hasn’t this weapon been effective?

The Math of 400 Million Barrels: An Illusion

400 million barrels sounds like a huge number, but when viewed in the context of the Hormuz Strait’s shortfall, the scale looks very different.

In its 50-year history, the IEA has released strategic reserves five times, with this being the sixth. The first four releases totaled approximately 352.7 million barrels (about 50 million during the Gulf War in 1991, 60 million after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, 60 million during the Libyan civil war in 2011, and 182.7 million during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022). This time, the 400 million barrels exceeds the total of the previous four combined.

But size doesn’t necessarily mean sufficiency.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 20 million barrels of oil and refined products daily, accounting for 25% of global maritime oil trade. According to the US Department of Energy, 172 million barrels will be released over 120 days. At this rate, the IEA’s total 400 million barrels would be about 3.3 million barrels per day, covering only 17% of the shortfall. JPMorgan, citing Al Jazeera, estimates that the maximum increase in production capacity among IEA members is only about 1.2 million barrels per day, far from enough to fill the gap.

To put it more simply: According to the IEA’s March report, global daily oil consumption is about 103 million barrels. If all 400 million barrels were dumped into the market at once, it would only last less than four days.

Have any past “releases” really worked?

The results of the five times the IEA has released reserves over 50 years can be clearly divided into two categories.

In 1991, during the Gulf War, oil prices plummeted about 20% on the day of the release, and within a week, they had fallen by a third. After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the market quickly stabilized. Both cases share a common feature: the source of supply disruption was being restored. The Gulf War bombing indicated that Kuwaiti oil fields might recover, and Katrina had already passed, with refineries gradually resuming operations.

The counterexample is 2022. After the Russia-Ukraine war erupted, the IEA released 182.7 million barrels, but Brent crude didn’t fall; it rose to $113 before slowly declining over several months. The reason is simple: Russia’s supply disruption had no quick fix.

The situation in 2026 resembles 2022 more than 1991. The Strait of Hormuz remains semi-blocked, and Iran shows no signs of ceasefire. As Stanford researcher Maksim Sonin cited by Al Jazeera explains, “This is not a cure-all; the market trades on expectations, and currently, those expectations are leaning toward concern.” Gregor Semieniuk, an economist at UMass Amherst, more directly states, “Releases can only buy temporary breathing room. Once the supply is exhausted, the firepower is gone.”

What determines oil prices is not how many barrels are released but whether the source of supply disruption has been eliminated. Reserve releases are essentially not about “replenishing oil,” but about “buying time”—using limited ammunition to create negotiation windows and flexibility in rerouting shipments. If time is bought but the disruption source remains unresolved, prices will still rise.

How much ammunition is left?

This raises a longer-term question: after repeatedly “buying time,” is the reserve stockpile itself still sufficient?

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the world’s largest government emergency oil stockpile. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the SPR peaked at 727 million barrels at the end of 2010. In 2022, the Biden administration released about 180 million barrels to cope with soaring oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, bringing the SPR down to 347 million barrels in June 2023—the lowest since 1983. After more than two years of replenishment, by March 2026, it had only recovered to about 415 million barrels.

Now, out of this 415 million barrels, another 172 million are set to be released. If executed as planned, the SPR will fall to about 242 million barrels, returning to levels seen in the mid-1980s. The US Department of Energy has promised to replenish about 200 million barrels within a year after the release, but the last replenishment took over two years to go from 347 million to 415 million, indicating that replenishment speed is lagging behind depletion.

It’s not just the US. Before this release, the 32 IEA member countries held about 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency reserves. This time, releasing 400 million barrels cuts that stockpile by roughly one-third.

If the next supply crisis occurs before the reserves are replenished, will the “last ammunition” be enough? There is currently no answer to this question. And it is precisely because of concerns about this that the market is reluctant to let oil prices fall.