#创作者冲榜 Can Gold Rally Again?

The more pressing question the market is concerned with now is whether gold prices can rebound. According to Huaxia Fund's analysis, gold, regarded as a safe-haven asset, has been declining continuously since March because gold's safe-haven value is reflected in U.S. dollar credit collapse and uncontrolled inflation, rather than liquidity depletion and deflation risks. Currently, the market is worried about marginal deterioration in liquidity, while the impact from geopolitical conflicts has clearly weakened.

The institution believes that gold's impact from tight monetary policy is more temporary in nature, and the long-term logic of geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold purchases has not been shaken or reversed. Gold's medium to long-term upward momentum remains intact, but in the short term, it still needs to wait for risk release. Facing market panic sentiment, the institution maintains that short-term pain does not overshadow gold's long-term allocation value.

UBS Wealth Management believes that geopolitical uncertainty, sustained central bank buying, and safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices. Recent gold price adjustments are consistent with past patterns at the beginning of geopolitical crises, and as risks persist and real interest rates decline, gold is expected to reach new highs this year.

Yuekai Securities Chief Economist Luo Zhiheng points out that the current sharp decline in gold is not a signal that the bull market has ended, but rather a deep correction within an uptrend. Long-term factors—including normalized global geopolitical risks, robust gold purchase demand from non-U.S. central banks, and the risk of global economics shifting from "inflation" to "stagflation"—will all provide solid support for gold prices.

However, institutions have generally offered cautious advice for investors eager to "catch the falling knife."

"Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have clearly broken below the 60-day moving average, a key support level, suggesting that downside potential may be further opened up."

The aforementioned trader suggests that given that unfavorable factors such as Federal Reserve monetary policy and U.S. dollar trends are still unfolding, the short-term downtrend has not yet ended. Retail investors should avoid blindly catching falling knives during downtrends. It is advisable to wait for gold prices to stabilize after consolidating in the 4,400-4,600 USD/ounce range, and then gradually establish positions for medium to long-term holding.