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🔥 Good morning! SP500 -0.8%, XAU -2.6%. Bitcoin is holding strong at $68,800.
You know what this chart is, it's Nvidia, and it's practically screaming for a -25% move to $130.
Nvidia is the most expensive company in the world, and the entire AI industry depends on it. AI is being built on its chips. Nvidia's share of the SP500 is around 7%. Its contribution to the SP500's growth in 2025 was approximately 15–16% of the entire year's gain for SP500, in 2024 it was 20%.
It's falling, and the entire MAG7 is falling with it: NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA (30% of the SP500 index by market cap).
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is holding almost $69,000. If that's not strong, then what is?
If everything crashes right now, this will force Trump not to drag out the war.
UBS directly states: in a scenario of rapid de-escalation (if the war lasts less than 3 months) they expect an exit from "safe havens" and an inflow of money into stocks and other risk assets, rather than into gold/bonds.
That's why I'm betting on a decline in SP500, XAU, possibly some crypto, then Trump exits the war unilaterally (April-May), after capturing Kharkiv and other areas. Funds pile in, as UBS Bank writes. 👆