#创作者冲榜 #加密行情震荡 Bitcoin dropped from $70k to $68,000—will it keep falling? How long will the Fed's hawkish stance last?

Macro data and news just threw cold water on the crypto market. First, the Fed's hawkish stance: February PPI inflation came in hotter than expected, and the market panicked instantly—we were hoping for rate cuts this year, but now not only might the number of cuts shrink significantly, some are even worried about a rate hike in October. The longer high rates persist, the tighter liquidity becomes in the market. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum naturally get sold off first. On top of that, geopolitical tensions are escalating: Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum, risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are rising, and energy crisis fears are spreading. Capital is fleeing high-volatility assets like crypto and rushing into safe havens like crude oil, gold, and the US dollar, further accelerating the coin price decline.
Simply put, the macro environment is now "tight money + fear of trouble," making it hard for crypto to lift its head in the short term.

After high-level pullback, weak consolidation grinding out a bottom
From the chart perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both just experienced a sharp correction from highs and are now "lying flat" consolidating at lower levels.
Bitcoin: Crashed from over 75,000 down to 67,445, now barely holding around 68,000. On the 4-hour chart, after several consecutive bearish candles, a small bullish candle formed, but volume has clearly contracted. This suggests buy orders haven't truly entered yet—it looks more like "exhausted from falling, taking a breather" rather than time for a reversal yet.
Key support is at 67,000; if it breaks below that, we could probe down to 65,000. Upper resistance is at 70,000—don't rush to call "bottom-fishing" without a volume breakout.

Ethereum: Movement nearly mirrors Bitcoin, crashed from over 2,300 to 2,035, now hovering around 2,050.
Technicals are weaker, not even a proper bounce has appeared, and volume is equally depressed—completely "following the big brother" status.
Short-term support at 2,000; break below that and we're heading to 1,900. Resistance at 2,150, which needs Bitcoin to lead the charge to break through.

Overall, technicals show "can't fall much, can't rise much"—classic bottom-grinding phase. Don't expect a V-shaped reversal.

Short-term caution, medium-term awaiting signals
Macro headwinds are still there, geopolitical tensions haven't eased, and coins will likely remain weak and choppy. Don't rush into bottom-fishing.
Focus on two signals:
One: Does the Fed show any dovish signals?
Two: Do geopolitical tensions cool down?
As long as neither appears, don't make hasty moves.
Medium-term, if geopolitical tensions ease or inflation data starts falling, market expectations for rate cuts could resurface, potentially triggering a correction rally in crypto. But if the situation keeps deteriorating or inflation surprises again, coins could probe lower—risk management is what matters most.
Markets never only go up, and never only go down. Patiently await your own opportunity, take it slow, and you'll eventually see the day when spring blooms.