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Market Analysis:
The current market is in a risk-release period under the dual pressure of geopolitical conflicts and macro tightening. Gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are declining in sync. The simultaneous selloff of gold and Bitcoin—previously considered "safe-haven assets"—indicates capital flight toward the US dollar and short-term bonds.
Macro Insights:
1. Market expectations for rate cuts in the first half of the year have fallen below 50%, meaning the opportunity cost of holding gold remains elevated. Capital is withdrawing from interest-free assets, with safe-haven funds pivoting toward crude oil and the US dollar. After breaking the critical psychological level of $4,500, programmatic trading and leveraged long positions are forced to liquidate, creating a "decline → liquidation → steeper decline" death spiral.
2. Gold has posted consecutive daily losses, with bullish sentiment completely collapsed. Retail and institutional investors are both in a wait-and-see or position-reduction mode, with no significant bottom-fishing capital entering the market. Even intraday bounces are quickly suppressed by selling pressure, resulting in weak intraday recoveries and a sustained choppy, bearish pattern.
3. Over the past 24 hours, over 170,000 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount reaching $335 million. This is a typical deleveraging market. Once prices decline, massive leveraged positions face forced liquidation, further intensifying selling pressure.
4. Although the crypto market continues its weakness in sync with gold, the crypto market demonstrates certain resilience. Continuous net inflows into ETFs provide support, with declines far smaller than historical similar macro shocks.
Trading Recommendation: Please inquire in the live broadcast room.
Special Reminder: Maintain empty positions and wait for stabilization. In the storm of a "liquidity crisis," surviving is more important than making profits. Cash is the best position.