Why is Bitcoin's Bottom Rarely a "One Touch and Bounce"?

Many people think that Bitcoin’s bottom will be a “sharp dip followed by a strong rebound” (V-shape). But if you look back at previous cycles, you’ll see a clear pattern: the bottom is usually a prolonged accumulation phase, not a specific point. 📉 Common features of past bottoms 2015: After the final drop, the market didn’t rebound immediately but moved sideways for quite a while before rising. 2018: The “capitulation” in November crushed expectations, followed by several months of sideways movement. 2022: After breaking through strong support levels, prices continued to accumulate in the low range before recovering. 👉 Common points: There is always a final decline that breaks confidence Then the downward momentum weakens The market enters a sideways phase Finally, a new upward trend begins 🧠 Why does the bottom take time? The bottom is not just about price — it’s about market psychology: The last optimists are “shaken out” Cash holders start to accumulate gradually Liquidity dries up → reduced volatility Confidence gradually returns, not in a single day 👉 Therefore, bottoms often take the form of: U-shape (rounded bottom) Or a prolonged sideways accumulation zone ❗ Why might the 60k–70k range not be the bottom yet? According to cycle logic: If there hasn’t been a strong enough crash to cause widespread “giving up,” then it’s not a true capitulation If the market hasn’t been sideways long enough, then there’s no sufficient accumulation If prices only “bounce back quickly” after a decline → that’s usually a dead cat bounce, not a reversal ⏳ More reasonable strategy No need to precisely catch the bottom Wait for: The market to stay sideways for a while Then break upward (right-side entry) 👉 This is a clear signal that: Supply has been exhausted Demand begins to take the lead 🐂 Quick definition: bull or bear? A week of decline, then a 3-day rally → Bull market A week of rally, then a one-day dip → Bear market It sounds simple, but it accurately reflects the essence: 👉 Strong markets rebound quickly when falling 👉 Weak markets crash fast when rising 🔑 Conclusion Bitcoin’s bottom: Rarely a single point Usually a process of accumulation And always requires time + the majority’s frustration 👉 If you haven’t yet experienced “giving up out of frustration” + sideways movement long enough → Maybe we haven’t truly reached the bottom yet