The most dangerous moment in a Bitcoin downtrend isn’t the crash. It’s the bounce.

Because the bounce feels like a relief rally and it feels like the worst is over. Sentiment shifts, people start to re-enter positions and just like that the bull trap is set.
Bitcoin is in that exact moment right now. Price is testing $70-$72k a major resistance zone where sellers have already shown up before. And even if we push higher from here into the low-mid $80k region, that move can still be entirely corrective (lower macro high). Meaning the bigger downtrend is still intact ( HTF > LTF). A new low is still possible.
So how do you actually know the difference between a corrective rally and a real reversal? Price structure.
Specifically, three things: does price break the resistance zone or just test it? Does price hold above it, or get rejected and close back below? Does a higher low form, or does the structure continue making lower highs?
Right now Bitcoin hasn’t answered any of those questions in the bulls favour.
The level I need to see broken and accepted before I change my bias is high 80k / low 90k region. Below that, I’m treating every move up as a potential trap not a bear market trend change.
React to what price does. Don’t try and predict what you hope it’ll do.