Dow Jones Futures Fall, Oracle Jumps On Earnings; Oil Swings With Reserves Release Plan Due

Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Oracle (ORCL) jumped overnight on strong earnings and guidance. Oil prices continued to swing amid reports that a record crude reserves release looms.

The stock market was narrowly mixed Tuesday, erasing decent intraday gains following Monday’s powerful upside reversal. Oil prices continued to make big swings.

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								Indexes Muted As Oil Prices Swing, But AI Stocks Strong. ASML, GSK, Cameco In Focus
							

							

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						Indexes Muted As Oil Prices Swing, But AI Stocks Strong. ASML, GSK, Cameco In Focus

AI infrastructure stocks were winners, with Sandisk (SNDK), ASML (ASML), Powell Industries (POWL) flashing buy signals. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) is hitting resistance at a critical level.

The video embedded here reviews Tuesday’s market action and analyzes ASML stock, GSK (GSK) and Cameco (CCJ)

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.1% vs. fair value, fluctuating with oil prices. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged lower.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.17%.

The Labor Department will release the February CPI inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Oil Reserves Release?

U.S. crude oil futures rose 4% to nearly $87 a barrel, just above where they were at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency has proposed that IEA members release up to 400 million barrels of oil to ease prices during the Iran war, according to media reports. The official recommendation will be announced at 8 a.m. ET, Reuters says. That’s more than double the prior record of 182 million barrels after Russia’s full-scale Ukraine invasion in early 2022.  IEA members hold 1.2 billion in public stockpiles, plus 600 million in mandated commercial inventory.

Oil prices had neared $120 a barrel Sunday night before reports of reserve releases first surfaced.

A reserves release would provide temporary relief if the Iran war ends quickly, but can’t make up for longer-term supply and production disruptions.

Oil Prices Weigh On Dow; Oracle, Nvidia Lift These AI Stocks

Oracle Earnings

Oracle earnings beat views on accelerating cloud growth, with the tech giant also guiding higher. That’s good news for the AI space and related private equity names that have been financing data centers for Oracle and others.

Oracle stock surged in extended action. Shares fell 1.4% to 149.40 in Tuesday’s trade, off early February lows but still in a downtrend from the record high of 345.72 set on Sept. 10. ORCL stock has tumbled on concerns about AI data center financing and the company’s heavy concentration with OpenAI.

Stock Market Rally

The stock market closed flat to slightly Tuesday after rising modestly intraday. Oil prices continued to drive market action.

U.S. crude oil futures plunged 11.9% to $83.45 a barrel as of 2:30 p.m. ET. However, most of Tuesday’s price decline actually occurred Monday afternoon, on President Donald’s Trump’s Iran war comments shortly before the 4 p.m. stock market close. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose to about $86.50 at 4 p.m. ET, roughly flat vs. 24 hours earlier.

Earlier, oil prices almost fell to $80 after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright briefly claimed wrongly that the U.S. Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The White House later denied any such escort.

However, rich nations continue to discuss releasing strategic reserves.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index dipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite eked out a 1 point gain. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined 0.2% after rising more than 1% intraday. All are still below their 50-day moving averages.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fell 0.75% after hitting resistance at its 50-day.

AI hardware plays were leaders. Software stocks fell, with some falling back from resistance at key levels.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed little changed at 4.135%.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) slumped 2.35%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 0.75%, but pared gains. Nvidia and ASML are huge SMH holdings.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) declined 1.9% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) slumped 3.05%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rebounded 1.85%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) descended 1.6%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) stepped down 0.8%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) dropped 1.3% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) lost 0.7%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) and Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) both fell 0.5%.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock rose 1.2% to 184.77, but hit resistance at the 50-day line after rebounding from its 200-day line on Monday. NVDA stock has a 212.19 consolidation buy point, according to MarketSurge. Investors could use 197.63 as an early entry.

Nvidia holds its annual GTC event next week, with CEO Jensen Huang set to give a keynote address on Monday.

AI Infrastructure Stocks To Watch

Sandisk stock popped 5.1% to 618.99 on Tuesday, after a big upside reversal from the 10-week line. Investors could have bought SNDK from breaking a short downtrend line or as a shakeout + 3. The flash memory play is on track to have a double-bottom base with a 691.54 buy point after this week, with several other memory plays also forging bases. Notably, Micron earnings are due March 18.

ASML stock bounced 1.9% to 1,383.40 after just reclaiming the 50-day line in Monday’s upside reversal. Investors could wait for ASML to clear the 1,400 level, as well as the 21-day line.

Powell Industries stock rose 1.8% to 529.54, continuing its strong bounce off the 10-week line Monday. POWL stock is 8.1% above the 10-week, but on Tuesday did break a short downtrend and clear the 21-day line.

Why This IBD Tool Simplifies The Search For Top Stocks

What To Do Now

The stock market erased modest gains Tuesday, amid oil price volatility. Remember that the market was stuck in a sideways pattern for months before the Iran war. Of course, if oil spikes again on fresh Iran headlines, stocks could easily tumble again

Investors could have tiptoed into stocks flashing buy signals, and not just in AI infrastructure names. But it’s definitely not a time to ramp exposure. Be ready to exit new positions quickly if conditions worse.

Definitely stay engaged and prepared. Have those watchlists ready.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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