Is This the Dark-Horse Driverless Vehicle Stock to Buy Now?

Automakers near and far are dipping their figurative toes into new frontiers such as artificial intelligence (AI), humanoid robotics, and driverless vehicles. Some automakers, such as Tesla (TSLA 3.33%) are exploring all three areas. For auto investors, owning a company that one day thrives with driverless vehicles, or perhaps vehicles-as-a-service, could be a portfolio-transforming win – or it could be a disappointment if the company falls short of ambitions.

That raises the question: Does Lucid’s (LCID 2.33%) recent announcement with Uber Technologies (UBER 1.95%) make the young EV maker a buy now?

Lucid’s major announcements

At Lucid’s recent investor day in New York, the young electric vehicle (EV) maker highlighted its strategic near-term plans that included elements of its upcoming midsize platform, its next-generation electric drive unit, and the evolution of its strategic driverless vehicle partnership with Uber. It’s really the combination of Lucid’s upcoming midsize platform and the partnership with Uber that should have investors intrigued.

A brief recap: In January, Lucid, Nuro, Inc. and Uber, unveiled the production intent vehicles to be used in the partnership’s global robotaxi service, with limited autonomous on-road testing beginning in the month prior. It’s a significant milestone and partnership, to be sure, but delivering this with commercial scale will be a massive challenge for not just this partnership, but the entire industry.

Image source: Uber Technologies.

For Lucid specifically, the partnership featured a $300 million investment from Uber and called for integrating Nuro’s autonomous technology into 20,000 or more Lucid Gravity SUVs for exclusive use with Uber’s platform over the next six years. That original partnership has now evolved and investors should take note because it could be the key to unlocking real driverless vehicle scale down the road.

Meet the Lunar concept

Now the companies are finalizing an agreement to deploy Lucid’s upcoming midsize EV platform as robotaxis, and the expansion is expected to double the program’s scope to about 40,000 vehicles. Lucid has already tallied eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries, signaling that production hiccups and slow acceleration of Gravity production are mostly in the rearview mirror.

Lucid’s midsize platform has been designed from the ground up with the goal of delivering what the automaker frequently refers to as the most advanced EVs in the world, at a much reduced cost without sacrificing performance. More specifically, Lucid has outlined its upcoming vehicles as Cosmos, Earth, and Lunar, with the first two mentioned aimed at consumers looking for a more luxurious and spacious experience or consumers with a more adventurous drive, respectively.

Lucid’s Lunar concept, however, is a dedicated two-seat robotaxi concept based on the same midsize platform designed with optimizing economics throughout its life cycle.

Expand

NASDAQ: LCID

Lucid Group

Today’s Change

(-2.33%) $-0.24

Current Price

$10.06

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$3.4B

Day’s Range

$9.98 - $10.44

52wk Range

$9.12 - $33.70

Volume

5.8M

Avg Vol

7.4M

Gross Margin

-9280.51%

What it all means

Back to the original question: Does this strategic expansion of its driverless vehicle ambitions make Lucid a buy now?

No, it certainly doesn’t. Uber, with more than 20 driverless vehicle partnerships and avoiding the manufacturing part of the equation, might be the more intriguing end of this partnership for investors.

The partnership is, however, a necessary step forward as the initial agreement was essentially proof of concept with less ability to truly scale. Evolving the partnership to include Lucid’s upcoming midsize platform is a bigger deal than many think, compared to the original partnership. It goes beyond simply doubling the vehicles it plans to put on the roads because Lucid’s midsize platform will be its first real attempt to drive production to significant scale – and that’s when driverless vehicle economics becomes more intriguing.

Until Lucid proves it can reach such scale with its midsize platform, investors should be much more zoomed in on how the EV maker improves unit economics on the Gravity SUV and pushes it to improve gross profits over the next year, because its rival Rivian has already done so.