US stocks continue to oscillate, interest rates and oil prices become core pricing factors

In macroeconomics, the U.S. February 2026 core CPI year-over-year growth met expectations. The U.S. February 2026 CPI increased by 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous value, meeting expectations; the month-over-month CPI rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations and higher than the previous 0.2%; the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-over-year, meeting expectations and unchanged from the previous; the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, meeting expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%.

The U.S. January 2026 durable goods orders were weaker than expected. Orders fell by 0% month-over-month, below the expected 1.1%; excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased by 0.4%, while non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft remained flat at 0%.

U.S. January 2026 JOLTS job openings rose to 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.75 million and the previous 6.542 million.

U.S. January 2026 core PCE inflation warmed. The PCE inflation increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the previous 2.9%; core PCE rose by 3.1% year-over-year, meeting expectations and higher than the previous 3%.

The U.S. consumer confidence index slightly declined. The University of Michigan’s March 2026 preliminary consumer confidence index was 55.5, lower than the previous 56.6 but slightly above the expected 54.8. The survey shows residents’ inflation expectations for the next year are 3.4%, unchanged from before; for the next five years, inflation expectations are 3.2%, lower than the previous 3.3%.

U.S. existing home sales warmed up. February 2026 existing home sales annualized total increased by 1.7% month-over-month, higher than the previous -5.9% and the expected -0.9%.

II. Major Index-Related Developments

2. Weekly Index Performance

Last week (March 9-13), the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 2.19% over the week, the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 1.06%, and the S&P 500 Index declined by 1.60%. Among the 11 sectors covered, 2 sectors rose: the S&P 500 Energy led with a 2.11% increase, while the S&P 500 Financial declined the most by 3.44%.

Data source: Bloomberg

2. Allocation Directions

U.S. Stocks: Under the “geopolitical conflict + re-inflation” scenario, U.S. stocks continued to fluctuate, with interest rates and oil prices as core pricing factors; sector and style differentiation increased, with funds favoring semiconductor/hardware and energy sectors that benefit relatively more. Within TMT, there is a structural difference with semiconductors outperforming software/internet. Investor sentiment remains volatile, seeking clearer macro and event cues. Regarding interest rate paths, institutions have delayed the first rate cut to possibly September, with upward pressure on long-duration assets persisting; fundamentals and medium-term outlooks have not significantly weakened. Focus can be on the “Super Central Bank Week” FOMC stance and language changes, second-order effects of oil prices and the dollar, and short-term AI chain catalysts like Nvidia GTC.

The S&P 500 Index is recognized internationally as a barometer of the U.S. stock market, covering over 500 representative listed companies across 11 sectors, mainly large-cap stocks, accounting for about 80% of the total U.S. stock market capitalization.

Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) is a domestic product tracking the U.S. Nasdaq 100 Index. According to the Nasdaq Index official data, the information technology sector accounts for 57.87%, the main component of the index, with distribution also in consumer services, consumer goods, healthcare, and other sectors. The top ten holdings are all high-quality tech companies.

Data source: Bloomberg

All information in this report is from public sources. Our company makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of such information. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed herein constitute actual investment results or investment advice.

Unless otherwise specified, data sources are from Wind, as of March 13, 2026.

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