🔥 Plot twist! The market is starting to bet on the Federal Reserve... rate hikes?

That's right, you read it correctly—
Traders are now betting that the probability of a rate hike before October has risen to 50%, with U.S. Treasury yields surging accordingly. Market sentiment has quietly shifted from "when will they cut rates" to "will they hike rates?"
Three months ago, we were still discussing how many rate cuts might happen this year; now, we're skipping the rate cut scenario altogether and jumping straight into the rate hike script—this round of expectations is changing faster than Sichuan opera face-changing.
The logic behind it is actually embedded in every barrel of crude oil:
Middle East tensions escalate → oil prices soar → disinflation process is forcibly reversed → Powell's rate cut window narrows further and further → the market begins pricing in the worst-case scenario.
What's even more painful is that all this happened just after the Fed finished its meeting and stated that "most committee members are not considering rate hikes"—yet, within 48 hours, expectations have already shifted.
When it comes to monetary policy, it's never solely up to the central bank. It's influenced by oil prices, warfare, and every unexpected inflation data point, which makes the decision for you.
The door to rate cuts is closing, while the door to rate hikes is cracking open—so, where does your position stand?
#IXIC # SPY #DJI