Data Review: Bitcoin Breaks Below $70,000, Why Do Mega Whales Dare to Go Long Against the Market After "Setting 10 Major Targets"?

March 20, 2026, Bitcoin price hovers near the key psychological level of $70,000, with the market shrouded in dual shadows of geopolitical conflicts and macro tightening expectations. At this sensitive moment, on-chain data analysts detected a large whale “setting 10 major targets” completed a significant position build-up: opening a long position of 2,601.5 BTC at an average price of $70,016.98, with a total holding value of up to $183 million. As of press time, unrealized gains have exceeded $1.11 million. This counter-trend move after the price broke below an integer level is not an isolated market event but an excellent snapshot for understanding current structural market divergences.

What kind of divergence is occurring among the whales now?

On-chain data reveal a notable strategic split within the whale community. On one side, some funds, represented by “setting 10 major targets,” are establishing large long positions near $70,000, showing strong willingness to support the current price level. On the other side, several ancient whale addresses are exiting: addresses holding Bitcoin for over 12 years transferred 1,000 BTC to exchanges, and another early whale sold 650 BTC. This opposition between “new” and “old” whales indicates that the market is not simply bearish but entering a deep game of chess at the $70,000 level.

Why are whales choosing to go long against the trend at $70,000?

The timing of this trade involves multiple considerations. From on-chain token structure, $70,000 is not only a psychological round number but also a critical level within long-term holder cost bases. Data show that during this recent decline, leveraged longs experienced a large-scale wipeout, with over $305 million in longs liquidated in the past 24 hours, releasing short-term selling pressure. The whale’s position-building here essentially exploits liquidity discounts caused by panic sentiment, aiming for a technical rebound after short-term oversold conditions. Additionally, the set stop-loss at $57,855 provides about 17% buffer, indicating a risk management approach that tolerates volatility rather than purely betting on leverage direction.

What market structure does this large position reveal?

This $183 million long position exposes deep structural features of the current market: liquidity stratification and transfer of pricing power. Traditional on-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score or Ahr999 index have recently shown signs of fatigue, mainly because ETF custody addresses and off-exchange whale trading have altered the original on-chain supply logic. When some whales establish large perpetual futures positions on exchanges instead of buying spot, they are effectively creating “synthetic spot” exposure via derivatives. This mode avoids direct impact on the spot market and allows them to profit from funding rate arbitrage over time.

How are whale battles reshaping market pricing logic?

The contest among whales is shifting market valuation from a “total supply and demand” perspective to a “structural game.” Despite the recent dip below $70,000, the number of whale addresses holding over 100 BTC has increased by 12% since March 2025. This indicates that funds are not leaving the market but reallocating at the wallet level. The battle for pricing power is moving from “exchange long-short ratios” to “on-chain whale position changes” and “stablecoin flows.” Data show that net inflows of stablecoins into exchanges have not yet shown a sustained rebound, suggesting that current price rebounds rely more on existing capital and leverage adjustments rather than new capital entering.

What are the potential future paths for the market?

Based on the current on-chain token structure, two main evolution paths exist. The optimistic scenario involves a bottoming and reaccumulation around $70,000, with whale positions serving as “smart money” signals attracting follow-on traders, combined with macro sentiment stabilization, pushing prices to retest previous highs. The neutral-to-cautious path requires more time for the market to absorb ongoing selling pressure from ancient whales, with prices oscillating between $65,000 and $72,000 until new macro liquidity signals emerge. Regardless of the path, the exchange of chips among whales will take time, making a sustained trend unlikely in the short term.

What hidden risks do leveraged whale strategies pose?

It’s crucial to recognize that large leveraged positions are potential risk sources for the market. Although the “setting 10 major targets” whale is currently in profit, its $183 million position means that if the market continues downward and triggers programmed selling, it could cause a chain reaction. On the same day, on-chain data showed another leveraged long whale liquidated, losing $14.02 million and closing 742.8 WBTC. This contrast illustrates that leverage direction alone does not determine success; risk control and the nature of the funds are key. On a macro level, if Fed rate cut expectations weaken further or Middle East tensions escalate again, more forced liquidations could occur.

Summary

The whale’s counter-trend long position at $70,000—“setting 10 major targets”—serves as both a technical play on short-term oversold conditions and a tentative bet on the market’s structural bottom. Its value lies not in predicting direction but in revealing the true state of the market: new and old funds are exchanging chips at key levels, with valuation logic shifting from macro narratives back to on-chain supply and demand. Leverage battles amplify short-term volatility. For ordinary investors, rather than blindly following whale directions, it’s more valuable to monitor underlying on-chain data—changes in whale addresses, stablecoin flows, long-term holder positions—these indicators form a more comprehensive picture than any single trade.

FAQ

Q: How can I track on-chain movements of “whale addresses”?

A: Use blockchain data platforms to monitor large transfers in real-time. When addresses holding large amounts of BTC transfer assets to exchanges, it’s often seen as a potential sell signal; conversely, whale withdrawals from exchanges to personal wallets suggest long-term holding intentions rather than immediate selling.

Q: What on-chain indicators do “smart money” traders typically watch during a downtrend?

A: They focus on three core metrics: net stablecoin inflows into exchanges (indicating potential buying power), CVDD models (estimating historical support zones), and long-term holder SOPR (assessing whether old coins are panic-selling). Currently, CVDD support levels are around $45,000 to $55,000.

Q: How reliable is the liquidation price data for leveraged whales?

A: It has some reference value but with limitations. The liquidation price indicates the trigger point for forced liquidation of a position; if the price hits this level, chain reactions may occur. However, whales may spread risk across multiple addresses or add collateral off-chain, so a single liquidation price isn’t an absolute red line.