Bitcoin, Crude Oil, and Gold Trends and Investment Opportunities Amid US-Iran Tensions

Article: Gate Research Institute

Core Summary

Following the US-Israel joint airstrikes on Iran, on Monday, gold and crude oil opened sharply higher, global stock markets opened lower, and Bitcoin volatility intensified, triggering approximately $80 billion in market cap fluctuations within hours.

Gold is supported by real interest rates and central bank gold purchases; crude oil is influenced by OPEC+ capacity and geopolitical risks. Both assets exhibit traditional safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties amid conflict.

Market forecasts suggest a low probability of full-scale war, but risks to the Strait of Hormuz remain significant; short-term asset volatility is driven by risk premiums, while medium- and long-term trends depend on conflict duration and monetary policy paths.

If the situation ultimately moves toward compromise or phased de-escalation, commodity prices could see substantial corrections; conversely, gold and oil prices may further surge.

1. Short- and Long-term Trends of Bitcoin, Oil, and Gold

1.1 Opening on Monday, March 2, 2026

On Saturday, the US and Israel launched a joint airstrike on Iran, causing Bitcoin to plummet to $63,000. Hours later, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in the strike. Bitcoin then rebounded strongly, soaring from the low of $63,000 to around $68,000. This rapid move caused about $80 billion in market cap fluctuations within hours, during a weekend with the lowest liquidity, forcing liquidations of approximately 157,000 traders and losses totaling $657 million.

During the sell-off, traders flocked to decentralized platforms, engaging in 24/7 perpetual contracts for oil and gold to hedge during traditional market closures. This capital flow weakened crypto buy-side depth and increased downward pressure on Bitcoin during a critical support phase. The interaction between spot crypto selling and commodity perpetual contracts during geopolitical shocks is a relatively new market dynamic.

Figure: Tokenized Gold and Bitcoin 7-Day Trading Data

1.2 Long-term Trends and Correlation Analysis

Historically, Bitcoin has been regarded as a safe-haven asset, often called “digital gold.” For example, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in late February 2022, markets briefly believed Russian funds might flow into crypto, with Bitcoin surging about 20%, briefly surpassing $45,000. In June 2025, escalating geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran also caused short-term Bitcoin rallies. Subsequently, in October, concerns over currency devaluation and sovereign debt (the so-called “debasement trade”) led Bitcoin and gold prices to rise in tandem, driven by macro uncertainty, reaching new highs.

Figure: Bitcoin, Gold, and WTI Oil Price Trends

However, since late 2025, Bitcoin’s safe-haven role has weakened, with analyses noting its divergence from gold during risk events. The October 2025 crash showed Bitcoin behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven, unlike gold and US Treasuries. Under inflation or macro stress scenarios, gold continues to rise, while Bitcoin often declines or moves in tandem, indicating the “digital gold” narrative is not fully realized in current markets. Recent macro shocks show trade policy risks and global uncertainty lead to Bitcoin declines and gold rises, further damaging Bitcoin’s safe-haven reputation.

Correlation analysis since 2020 shows Bitcoin exhibits clear “risk asset” characteristics. Its correlation with NASDAQ reaches 0.43, the highest in the matrix, indicating strong linkage with tech stocks, especially during the post-pandemic global easing, 2021 liquidity boom, and 2023–2025 AI-driven tech rallies, when risk appetite increased. Conversely, Bitcoin’s correlation with the US dollar index is -0.24; during the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022, Bitcoin was under pressure, confirming its sensitivity to global liquidity. Gold (XAU) has the strongest negative correlation with the dollar (-0.53), consistent with traditional safe-haven logic, while Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is only 0.15, showing its “digital gold” attribute is unstable. Overall, since 2020, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta macro risk asset, driven mainly by liquidity cycles and risk appetite rather than pure geopolitical safe-haven demand.

Table: Correlation Analysis of BTC, WTI, and Gold

In contrast, gold and oil are more influenced by real interest rates, dollar strength, and geopolitical risk premiums. During the 2020 pandemic, massive global central bank easing and falling real rates drove gold to record highs; in 2021–2022, Fed rate hikes and dollar strength kept gold high but volatile. Rising geopolitical tensions and central bank gold reserve accumulation reinforced gold’s safe-haven and reserve functions, pushing prices higher and repeatedly hitting new phases. On the supply side, global gold production has grown modestly, with limited new large mines, and rising costs due to energy and labor prices, along with stricter environmental regulations, constraining capacity expansion. Since 2020, gold markets show “rigid supply, financialized demand.”

Oil experienced historic shocks in 2020, with WTI turning negative during the pandemic, then recovering rapidly supported by global economic recovery and OPEC+ cuts. In 2022, energy supply concerns pushed prices above $100/barrel; later, slowing growth and weaker demand expectations caused prices to retreat. OPEC+’s long-term production management and Middle Eastern spare capacity have been key supply buffers. US shale output recovered gradually from 2021–2023, but with disciplined capex, expansion slowed compared to the 2010s. Between 2024–2025, oil prices fluctuated amid geopolitical conflicts, shipping risks, and demand slowdown, showing high volatility. Overall, since 2020, oil’s core features are a cycle of “demand shocks—supply battles—geopolitical premiums,” with prices elevated from pandemic lows but highly sensitive to macro and policy shifts.

2. Future Outlook

2.1 Asset Impact Analysis

At Monday’s global market open, Iran-related fears caused gap-up in gold and oil, and a broad stock market decline, reflecting panic. The main transmission path is energy shocks: the severity and expected duration of the crisis determine the impact depth.

Generally, rising uncertainty and tail risks prompt markets to increase risk premiums. For example, over the weekend, short-term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns over energy prices, though markets have partly priced in slower growth and higher inflation risks.

Figure: US Implied CPI YoY Expectations

Current market pricing is highly sensitive: if the situation de-escalates or reaches a phased compromise, geopolitical premiums may quickly unwind, causing sharp corrections in commodities; if the conflict spirals and deepens, gold and oil could surge further.

2.1.1 Impact on BTC and Other Crypto Assets

Impact so far:

During the US-Iran conflict escalation, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility amplification. Technical analysis (15-minute chart) shows BTC briefly dropped to around $63,000 before rebounding above $68,000, then consolidating at high levels. Short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) crossed multiple times with the MA30, indicating rapid shifts in market sentiment. Overall, Bitcoin behaved more like a “high-volatility risk asset” than a stable safe haven—initial liquidity-driven sell-offs followed by rebounds aligned with risk asset recovery. This suggests short-term capital prioritized deleveraging and risk reduction amid geopolitical shocks.

Figure: BTC/USDT 15-Minute K-line

Institutional forecasts:

Major institutions’ views vary but generally lean toward “short-term pressure, medium-term depends on liquidity”:

• Bloomberg Intelligence notes that during early geopolitical conflicts, markets tend to adopt a “haven-first” strategy, with crypto often moving in tandem with risk assets like stocks, implying short-term downside.

• JPMorgan’s digital asset team states Bitcoin is more a “risk appetite asset,” highly correlated with liquidity, USD index, and real rates, not a pure safe haven.

• CoinShares reports that if conflict pushes oil prices higher and inflation expectations rise, delaying Fed easing, crypto may face phased outflows.

• Standard Chartered’s research suggests that in extreme financial instability or rising sovereign risk, Bitcoin could regain “alternative asset” appeal, but usually after initial risk-off sell-offs.

Overall:

• If conflict remains regional with limited oil price rise → BTC likely remains volatile within high ranges.

• If oil surges and delays rate cuts → BTC may face liquidity constraints.

• If systemic financial fears emerge → BTC could attract “credit risk hedge” flows in a second phase.

2.1.2 US Stocks

Impact so far:

In the context of escalating US-Iran tensions, Nasdaq shows risk-off traits. The index rose above 25,400 but then sharply declined, with a large downward candle breaking previous support, bottoming near 24,500.

The 15-minute chart shows a typical “high-level weakening → support break → weak rebound → new lows” pattern, with diminishing rebound strength and clear bearish momentum. Tech stocks, sensitive to liquidity and rate expectations, are under pressure as oil prices and inflation fears rise, reducing risk exposure.

Overall, the conflict has temporarily compressed risk premiums in Nasdaq, shifting from “risk-on” to “defensive.”

Figure: NAS100/USDT 15-Minute K-line

Institutional forecasts:

• Bloomberg Intelligence states that during Middle East escalation, markets tend to adopt “risk-off + haven-first” strategies, with tech stocks leading declines.

• JPMorgan’s global strategy team warns that sustained oil price increases could limit Fed rate cuts, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks.

• Goldman Sachs notes that geopolitical shocks initially increase market volatility, with Nasdaq typically falling more than S&P 500.

• Morgan Stanley’s risk model indicates that if energy prices rise beyond certain thresholds, valuation risks for growth stocks increase.

Overall:

• If conflict remains regional and oil stabilizes → Nasdaq may experience high volatility.

• If oil breaks key levels and fuels inflation → Tech stocks could continue underperforming.

• If conflict quickly de-escalates → Risk appetite may recover, leading to a technical rebound.

Currently, Nasdaq is in a short-term downtrend channel, with future direction hinging on oil prices, USD, and US Treasury yields, and whether the conflict intensifies. In the short term, markets are mildly disturbed by geopolitical sentiment; long-term, fundamentals and valuations will dominate. The AI bubble’s risk of bursting remains low, and the application of AI in wartime may even benefit US tech sectors.

2.1.3 Gold (XAU)

Impact so far:

In the escalation of US-Iran tensions, gold quickly exhibited classic safe-haven behavior. The price surged sharply during the initial phase, breaking previous highs and reaching new peaks, then consolidating at elevated levels.

On 5-minute and 15-minute charts, moving averages show bullish divergence, with multiple tests of short-term support followed by upward pushes, indicating strong capital inflow. During volatile periods in risk assets like Bitcoin, gold maintained relative strength, reflecting safe-haven capital flows. Overall, the conflict has significantly increased gold’s “risk premium.”

Figure: XAUT/USDT 15-Minute K-line

Institutional forecasts:

• Bloomberg Intelligence states that in Middle East escalation scenarios, gold is typically the first safe-haven choice, with funds flowing into gold and US Treasuries rather than crypto.

• Goldman Sachs commodity team notes that ongoing energy supply risks will support gold via “safe-haven demand + inflation expectations.”

• JPMorgan’s macro strategy suggests that if oil prices rise, lowering real yields or weakening the dollar, gold could push toward historic highs.

• World Gold Council research shows that major conflicts initially boost gold ETF inflows and futures net longs.

Overall:

• If conflict remains regional → Gold likely stays at high, firm levels.

• If escalation continues and inflation expectations rise → Gold may enter a sustained uptrend, potentially surpassing $6,000/oz.

• If rapid de-escalation occurs → Safe-haven premiums may unwind, with prices retracing key support levels.

2.1.4 Oil

Impact so far:

In the context of US-Iran escalation, WTI crude oil experienced a typical “risk premium jump.” Prices surged after news, reaching over $75, then sharply retreated to around $69, before rebounding to $72–73.

On 15-minute charts, volatility spiked with “emotional peaks → quick profit-taking → secondary recovery.” The initial risk premium was driven by fears of Middle Eastern supply disruptions, especially Strait of Hormuz transit risks, but later prices reflected some market confidence in supply continuity. Overall, the conflict has significantly widened oil price volatility.

Figure: Light Crude Oil Futures 15-Minute K-line

Institutional forecasts:

• Goldman Sachs notes that if conflict persists without actual supply disruption, oil may remain in risk premium range; if supply is affected, prices could rise further.

• JPMorgan energy team emphasizes that the key variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz is threatened; if shipping is restricted, prices could spike rapidly.

• Rystad Energy suggests that if regional supply is interrupted, oil could become highly volatile and move higher.

• Bloomberg Intelligence states that current oil price increases are mainly due to risk premiums, not inventory changes; future trends depend on actual export impacts.

Overall:

• If conflict remains localized with no real impact on exports → WTI likely stays between $70–$75.

• If transportation or capacity is affected → Prices could break previous highs and surge.

• If conflict de-escalates quickly → Risk premiums may decline, and prices could retreat to previous mid-range levels.

Currently, oil prices have completed initial emotional spikes and are in a “recovery phase.” Future direction depends heavily on news flow and actual supply disruptions. Escalation threatening Strait of Hormuz navigation could push prices to new highs.

2.2 Market Outlook and Event Tree Analysis

Using Polymarket’s latest odds as an event tree, the US-Israel or US-attack-on-Iran conflict can be broken into key branches.

2.2.1 Event Tree

(1) Market’s “full invasion” probability is very low

Polymarket estimates about 7% for “US invading Iran before 3/31.” The definition of invasion involves US military offensive and control over parts of Iran, excluding short strikes, proxy conflicts, or limited operations—these are considered low-probability tail events.

Figure: US Invasion Probability before 3/31

(2) Core macro risk: the tail risk of Strait of Hormuz closure is not low

Compared to full invasion, the market assigns a higher probability (~42% on 3/31, ~44% on 6/30, ~49% on 12/31) to Iran closing or severely restricting Hormuz. This is the key geopolitical risk: over 20% of global oil passes through Hormuz, and sustained disruption could push prices near or above $100/barrel.

Figure: Iran’s Strait Closure Probability

(3) Duration expectations: conflict may cool within weeks, but formal ceasefire is later

Polymarket estimates about 47% for “conflict ending before 3/31,” requiring 14 days of no new military activity. Another market suggests a 55% chance of a formal ceasefire before 3/31, rising to 71% before 4/30. These imply traders expect conflict to subside in weeks, with formal peace delayed.

Figure: Conflict Ending Probability before 3/31

Overall, markets see a high chance of conflict de-escalation in weeks, but formal ceasefire dates are later.

2.2.2 Asset Impact Forecasts

(1) Crude oil as the most direct geopolitical pricing asset

Oil prices are driven by two overlapping factors: geopolitical risk premiums and supply/disruption concerns. Escalation and shipping risks increase premiums; actual supply disruptions would push prices higher.

Market consensus expects oil to continue rising as a “risk premium,” even without full blockade, as shipping/insurance costs rise. On 3/2, the probability of oil rising is forecasted at 99%; odds of reaching $80, $90, $100, $110 by end-March are 64%, 32%, 16%, 10%, respectively.

Figures: Oil Price Rise Probability on 3/2; March Price Range Forecast

(2) Gold benefits from rising geopolitical risk

As risks increase, capital flows into traditional safe havens like gold. Spot gold has surged to about $5,350/oz. Market forecasts for gold are optimistic: by end-June, 85% see $5,500, 77% see $5,700, 60% see $6,000, 44% see $6,200; less than 20% expect a drop below $4,200.

Figures: Gold Price Forecast by June

The key is not just whether gold will rise, but the pattern of its upward momentum. If conflict cools within weeks, gold may stabilize at high levels; if Hormuz risks persist and inflation expectations rise, gold could enter a sustained rally, possibly surpassing $6,000/oz.

(3) Bitcoin in the short term remains a risk asset

Bitcoin’s typical response to geopolitical shocks is initial risk-asset pricing, increased volatility, deleveraging, then debate over safe-haven status.

Polymarket’s “Bitcoin 3/2 daily change” odds favor an upward move, but with higher uncertainty than gold or oil.

Figures: Bitcoin 3/2 Daily Price Movement Odds

Hormuz risk is a key short-term price driver. If risks escalate, inflation and rate expectations may shift hawkishly, pressuring Bitcoin. If conflict cools in weeks, Bitcoin could revert to a liquidity and risk appetite-driven framework. If conflict becomes prolonged with sanctions and capital flow frictions, Bitcoin might develop an alternative safe-haven narrative.

2.3 International Political Analysis

In the short term, how will US-Iran conflict evolve? For the US, successful “decapitation” actions have increased strategic leverage. Avoiding ground troops and endless war, the US’s “fight to negotiate” phase is largely complete. If escalation continues, blocking Hormuz and raising oil prices sharply, the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance to curb inflation, risking US economy and political fallout, especially for Trump’s midterms. If Iran quickly compromises, internal political pressures may also influence outcomes. Overall, a “manageable escalation, limited resolution” seems more likely.

Mainstream markets expect US and Iran to control conflict scale, mimicking the June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” with air strikes, avoiding ground invasion, claiming phased victories to maintain political support. The conflict may ease in 2–3 weeks, with risk premiums falling, and gold and oil prices retreating from highs, easing market risk sentiment.

However, key uncertainties remain:

1. Whether Hormuz will be effectively blocked. The strait handles 20–30% of global oil shipping. While current signs suggest no immediate blockade, escalation could push Brent above $100–$110.

2. US involvement in ground war. Deployment of troops or prolonged conflict could fundamentally change the risk profile, pushing inflation and fiscal strain higher.

3. Iran’s internal power dynamics. Leadership succession and Revolutionary Guard control will influence Iran’s military posture and conflict trajectory.

Overall, markets are pricing a “limited conflict,” but tail risks remain, with geopolitical premiums likely to be volatile in coming weeks.

3. Potential Investment Opportunities

From a strategic perspective, markets are likely to follow a “risk-averse first, recovery later” pattern in the short term, with long-term uncertainties unresolved. Bloomberg’s models show crude oil prices have risen about $11 since early year, with risk premiums contributing roughly 6 USD and demand recovery about 5 USD, indicating risk premiums dominate current oil pricing. Given Israel’s statements, conflict may persist for another week, maintaining risk aversion and favoring safe assets like gold, oil, and bonds, while pressuring equities.

If tensions ease in 2–3 weeks, risk premiums may unwind, oil could fall back to $60–$70, and gold to around $5,200. Still, structural demand from central banks for gold and ongoing geopolitical risks support a long-term bottom. Over the longer horizon, increasing frequency and intensity of conflicts, energy security concerns, and monetary uncertainties suggest gold and oil remain valuable for inflation hedging and geopolitical risk mitigation, suitable for strategic allocations.

References:

• Gate

• Polymarket

• X

• Goldman Sachs

• TradingView