Conversation with Fundstrat Research Chief: After Accurately Predicting the Crash, Bitcoin's $115K Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Seen at $100

整理 & 编译：深潮 TechFlow

Guest: Sean Farrell, Head of Crypto Research at Fundstrat

Host: Zack Guzman

Podcast Source: Coinage

Original Title: Why The Analyst Who Called Crypto’s Crash Is Still Cautious

Air Date: March 18, 2026

Key Takeaways

Although many investors believe Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have bottomed, market volatility and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict make some analysts cautious about this optimism.

Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell, who accurately predicted the market crash in February this year, shared his views on Bitcoin and crypto market risks in an interview with Coinage. He discussed potential future trends for Bitcoin, factors that could impact risk assets, and why he remains cautious about the crypto market. Additionally, he analyzed Hyperliquid’s cross-asset growth potential, considering it one of the most promising protocols in crypto right now.

Highlights Summary

Market Timing & Positioning: Now a “Tug-of-War” for Traders

Early this year, the market showed extreme positioning, with low volatility but highly active trading in risk assets. Coupled with miners selling Bitcoin at all costs, I judged that there was little risk-reward in the first half of the year.

The current market is not in a clear trend phase; it remains a typical trader’s market. During upward moves, it’s wiser to hold cash reserves.

The 30-day moving average of funding rates has turned negative, usually indicating the market is approaching a more stable bottom. However, I expect a tough correction period before a turnaround at year’s end.

Institutional Play: The “Support Buying” Vacuum Behind Saylor’s Purchases

While large institutional buys inject liquidity, the problem is that once these spot buying activities stop, the market may lack sufficient “supporting buy orders,” increasing short-term volatility risk.

Many alternative asset management firms’ stocks have already suffered, and if credit spreads start to widen broadly, the impact on risk assets like crypto will be lagged but potentially devastating.

Top Alpha Target: The Paradigm Shift of Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Hyperliquid is among our most attractive holdings. In the first 15 days of March, its HIP-3 market traded $28 billion, driven by global macro turmoil and user demand for gold and oil contracts.

HYPE’s 90-day correlation with Bitcoin is only about 0.4 (usually close to 1). This low correlation makes it a valuable addition to crypto portfolios.

We set a target price of around $100 for HYPE, offering significant upside from the current (~$40).

Macro Risk Deep Waters: Negative Links Between Private Credit & AI

My main concern is the pressure in the private credit market. Many funds are forced to redeem and devalue their holdings. Credit spreads are widening, and waiting until they surge fully would be too late.

Many private credit assets are software companies; rapid AI development could lower their terminal value, impacting credit quality and spilling over into crypto markets.

Regulation & the Fed: Uncertain Catalysts

Strong opposition from banking lobbies and ongoing disputes over stablecoin yields make the passage of legislation uncertain. This fight is more prolonged than expected.

Investors should watch whether the Fed delays rate cuts to 2027. Such a delay would amplify current war risk premiums and negatively impact asset prices.

I am waiting for a “ capitulation” event. If prices break back above key moving averages and CME open interest increases, I’ll be more confident to increase investments.

Long-term Outlook: Target Price Unchanged

Despite short-term caution, I do not plan to adjust my year-end target of $115,000. Favorable factors may emerge strongly in the second half of this year.

Sean Farrell on “Preemptive Crypto Market Crash”

Zack Guzman: Welcome to a new episode of Coinage. Today, we’re pleased to have back our guest—Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat.

You appeared on our show earlier this year and successfully predicted the market downturn. Now, after a rebound, the market remains volatile. I noticed you recently issued a cautious report, especially regarding certain sectors in crypto. Can you share your current views on market volatility and how it might affect cryptocurrencies?

Sean Farrell:

I want to start with a review of early this year, when I was very cautious. The market then showed extreme positioning, with low volatility but highly active risk asset trading. Liquidity was uncertain, with many investment products trading near or below NAV. Bitcoin miners, under pressure from market conditions, sold Bitcoin at all costs, which undoubtedly worsened the downtrend. Combining these signals, I judged that the risk-reward in the first half was poor, and the market could face bigger swings. This proved to be correct.

On February 5, we saw a pullback. But I see that decline more as a short-term trading opportunity—suitable for “short-term holding,” not “long-term buying.” Although there was some rebound afterward, the overall spillover effects and volatility in crypto remain key concerns.

Recently, some positive signals appeared. For example, fear has eased, and volatility in stocks and bonds has risen, indicating investors are reassessing risks. In crypto, we also see signs of sentiment cleansing, such as the 30-day moving average of funding rates turning negative. This often signals approaching a more stable bottom. Additionally, Strategy has recently bought Bitcoin in large scale again, injecting liquidity.

Still, I remain cautious about overall market positioning. The environment is uncertain, especially since cash holdings in January and February were at historic lows. Major indices and broader markets still seem overvalued, suggesting a full market washout has not yet occurred.

Despite the uncertainty, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. I believe a clear upward turn could happen before year’s end, but a tough correction phase may still be needed.

Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic factors, especially Fed policy, geopolitical risks, and private credit pressures. These influence traditional markets and spill over into crypto. Nonetheless, I believe Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid, and its value should continue to grow long-term.

Will these risks definitely materialize? Not necessarily, but they remain present, especially given many unresolved uncertainties. Geopolitical risks are a key concern. Oil prices are high, near $100 per barrel, and credit markets show signs of deterioration. These issues, while not solely geopolitical, are significant challenges markets cannot ignore.

Tomorrow, the Fed’s meeting will be held. Market expectations for rate cuts seem to have been “priced out” of the yield curve. I think the Fed’s policy adjustments might bring some positive effects in the second half, but internal disagreements and policy uncertainty make it hard to predict a clear easing stance soon.

Strategy’s ongoing buying, Bitcoin fund flows, and market risks

Zack Guzman: You predicted early this year that markets could be highly volatile, and your forecast proved correct—Bitcoin quickly dropped near $60,000 and hovered there for a while. Interestingly, you warned about this before the Iran conflict escalated. Does this suggest geopolitical events should also be factored into risk assessments?

Additionally, data from CoinShares shows inflows into digital asset investment products for three consecutive weeks. You mentioned Michael Saylor and Strategy’s large-scale buying. If the market moves differently, Saylor’s buying might not attract as much attention. But when we combine these factors, some notable trends emerge. Could this lead to a “crowding out effect,” suppressing enthusiasm in other markets?

Deep潮 TechFlow Note: The “Crowding Out Effect” is an economic and financial term describing how excessive concentration of funds or resources in one area can squeeze out others. In crypto, it often refers to large investors or whales buying heavily, pushing prices up and attracting attention, which may cause other investors’ funds and enthusiasm to retreat or shift away from other assets.

Sean Farrell:

I’m not sure if I’d call it a “crowding out,” but I do see it as part of market risk. We’ve seen similar situations before: in short periods, crypto assets outperform stocks significantly, often driven by large institutional players or whales.

The problem is, once these spot buy orders stop, the overall market support may weaken. If demand for stocks of Strategy or other whales diminishes in a week, the withdrawal of these large buy orders could leave the market lacking “supporting buy orders,” leading to increased volatility and short-term risk.

Why Crypto Remains a Trader’s Paradise

Zack Guzman: You mentioned early this year that many fund managers held very little cash. Do you think the current risk-reward environment means available buying funds are limited, and that once investors need to sell, Bitcoin and other cryptos might be the first to be affected? What are you most worried about now?

Sean Farrell:

I agree. I tend to view the market more tactically than some colleagues. Based on our current assessment, I believe we are not far from the bottom but still some way from the top. My job is to help investors manage risk better and outperform Bitcoin through market cycles. Honestly, the market is not in a clear trend phase; it’s still a typical trader’s market.

For those seeking an edge, forming a clear but flexible tactical view in the short term is crucial. Looking back to early February, the market declined, but now it has rebounded: Bitcoin’s price is up about 20-25%, with altcoins performing even better.

Given current risk-reward, it’s probably wiser to increase “dry powder” (cash reserves) during the rally.

Sean Farrell’s Continued Optimism on Hyperliquid

Zack Guzman: Arthur Hayes set a target price for HYPE above $100. When analyzing the actual data driving HYPE’s performance, many interesting phenomena emerge. For example, Hyperliquid users are heavily trading gold, silver, and oil contracts. Do you share Hayes’s bullish outlook? If so, what’s your target price for HYPE? Also, you’ve discussed DATs (Digital Asset Vaults)—what’s your view on HYPE’s future?

Sean Farrell:

Last year, we set a target of around $100 for HYPE, which still offers significant upside from current (~$40). As of recording, HYPE is at about $40.55.

Fundamentally, Hyperliquid is one of our most attractive holdings. This includes not only the HYPE token but also Hyperliquid Strategies, the related digital asset vault company, which has performed very well.

Recently, Hyperliquid launched HIP-3 markets—permissionless markets where anyone can create their own. These markets mainly involve tradable assets like perpetual futures tracking commodities and stocks.

I also shared a chart: in the first 15 days of March, HIP-3 markets traded $28 billion, driven by cross-asset price swings and macro turmoil. Many investors are trading oil contracts on weekends, and precious metals have also been hot.

These activities boost Hyperliquid’s revenue, especially since they involve external assets outside the crypto ecosystem. This explains why the correlation between HYPE and Bitcoin has decreased significantly. Traditionally, crypto assets are highly correlated, near 1, but since the start of this year (up to last week), the 90-day correlation is only about 0.4. This low correlation makes HYPE a valuable addition to crypto portfolios.

In recent weeks, HYPE’s price has risen sharply; some short-term correction may be needed to digest gains. But long-term, I remain confident in Hyperliquid’s protocol prospects.

Crypto Regulation, Clarity Act & Market Structure

Zack Guzman: To clear current market fears, besides the passage of the Clarity Act, what other factors are you watching? Or what final catalysts do you think are needed for you to believe crypto can return to glory like Tom and other bulls?

Sean Farrell:

I want to start with regulation. Early this year, I was relatively optimistic about the Clarity Act’s prospects, believing it might pass. My optimism was based on two reasons: first, it’s a midterm election year, and the Republican hold in Congress is uncertain; second, organizations like Fairshake have just raised nearly $200 million for a “war chest” to support related legislation. So I thought the risk-reward favored its passage.

But over time, the situation has become more complex. Industry insiders tell me that banking lobbies are strongly opposing the bill, and disputes over stablecoin yields are lasting longer than expected—this fight is more prolonged than many anticipated. Also, Congress has other higher-priority issues, making the bill’s outlook more uncertain.

Nevertheless, I believe the market underestimates a key point: regardless of obstacles, the SEC and CFTC will continue rulemaking. I expect that in the second half of this year, some positive market structure developments will emerge. I still hope the Clarity Act passes—it would be a milestone.

As for what could make me change my view—if broader risk markets capitulate, that would give me more confidence to buy at lower prices.

Another scenario: geopolitical risk premiums decline, market expectations for rates stabilize, and credit markets normalize. If the market enters a clear trend phase with defined directionality, I’d be more willing to act.

Specifically, if prices break above key moving averages, institutional funds flow back, CME open interest increases, and basis widens, I’d be more confident to increase investments.

Private Credit Pressures & Broader Market Risks

Zack Guzman: How much of your market view is based on macroeconomic risks? If we look at broader macro risks, especially credit market pressures, my experience tells me that the real downward drivers are often less discussed. Could credit market stress also add extra pressure on crypto?

Sean Farrell:

Yes, it can have some impact. Sometimes, people forget important issues. For example, recent focus has been on geopolitical events like Iran and commodity prices, which are important. But even before these, we saw many problems in broader markets, driven mainly by private credit deterioration.

Recently, many private credit funds have been forced to redeem and devalue holdings. Credit spreads are widening, and if you wait until they surge fully, it’s too late.

Many private credit assets are software companies; rapid AI growth could reduce their terminal value, affecting credit quality and spilling over into crypto. The pace of spread widening is also concerning. If spreads spike suddenly, it could impact markets.

While these issues could influence markets, I don’t see them as systemic risks—some problems relate to AI-affected tech firms. Many private credit investments are in software, which might lose market share or terminal value due to AI’s rapid development.

So, I’m closely watching this. I’m trying to understand how and when these issues might explode, but it’s definitely a risk factor.

Why He Hasn’t Changed His Bitcoin Price Target

Zack Guzman: Every time you visit, we discuss your long-term price forecasts. For example, you initially set a Bitcoin target of $115,000 for year-end. When you look back at your January predictions, do you feel the need to revise? Or as we approach late 2026, do you reassess these targets?

Sean Farrell:

It’s only mid-March, so I think it’s too early to revise long-term forecasts. I still believe we’ll benefit from some of the favorable factors I highlighted earlier, which could emerge strongly in the second half of this year. So I have no plans to adjust the year-end target of $115,000 now.

My focus remains on managing short-term volatility and increasing exposure when the market shows clearer trend signals.

Fed Meeting: What Crypto Investors Should Watch

Zack Guzman: The Fed’s meeting this Wednesday—what will you be paying close attention to? How will you interpret the Fed’s statement? What should crypto investors focus on?

I recall you recently mentioned that markets seem to be pricing in some dovish expectations, expecting Powell to signal easing. But as you said, it’s a tug-of-war: weak employment data raises concerns about AI-driven job displacement, while inflation risks seem to re-emerge.

Sean Farrell:

I agree. Most expect Powell to adopt a relatively “neutral” stance, given the lack of strong reasons for a hawkish shift.

Investors should focus on the dot plot and economic projections. These will reveal the Fed’s latest outlook on inflation, growth, and unemployment, and may hint at future rate paths.

If the dot plot shows a delay in rate cuts until 2027, that could negatively impact asset prices. Such a shift might shift market attention to other risks, possibly amplifying existing war risk premiums. Ultimately, the market’s reaction depends on the specific details the Fed releases.