Decoding "Periods When to Make Money": A 19th Century Framework for Modern Markets

For over 150 years, traders and investors have encountered a peculiar historical chart claiming to predict when wealth-building opportunities emerge in financial markets. This framework, known as “periods when to make money,” has fascinated market participants despite its controversial accuracy. But what exactly is this chart, where did it come from, and should you trust it in today’s world?

The Origins of This Historical Prediction Model

The story begins in 1875 when Samuel Benner, an Ohio-based farmer and businessman, published his observations in a work titled “Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices.” Benner believed he had identified recurring cyclical patterns in economic activity based on historical price movements. His framework later gained additional recognition when adapted and distributed by other market analysts, creating what became known as the economic cycle prediction chart.

Benner’s core premise was straightforward: if economic crises and market rallies followed predictable patterns throughout history, then these periods would repeat in the future, offering investors a roadmap for strategic decision-making.

Understanding the Three Market Periods

The chart organizes years into three distinct categories, each representing a different market environment and opportunity:

Crisis Years (Panic Periods): Benner identified specific years—including 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and projected forward to 2035 and 2053—as periods when financial instability historically occurred. During these years, prices typically contracted sharply, presenting downside risk to unprepared investors.

Boom Years (Prosperity Periods): This section highlights 1926, 1935, 1946, 1962, 1972, 1989, 1999, 2007, 2016, and the upcoming 2026 as periods of economic expansion when asset prices climbed. The chart suggests these represent optimal windows for selling holdings and taking profits.

Contraction Years (Hard Times Periods): Years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2012, and 2023 mark the chart’s projected downturns—periods theoretically ideal for accumulating assets at depressed prices.

The underlying assumption is that investors who can anticipate these periods when to make money moves can execute buys low and sell high strategies with remarkable precision.

Why Market Timing Remains Unpredictable

While the chart’s historical framework carries intellectual appeal, modern financial theory presents a more sobering reality. Economic cycles, though real, prove far less consistent and predictable than cyclical models suggest.

Several critical limitations emerge:

First, real-world markets respond to complex, interconnected variables—geopolitical events, technological disruption, policy shifts, pandemics, and supply shocks—that historical patterns cannot fully capture. The 2020 coronavirus crash and 2008 financial crisis both produced market movements that defied traditional cyclical expectations.

Second, the very act of publicizing a prediction chart can influence market behavior, potentially invalidating the predictions themselves (a phenomenon economists call reflexivity).

Third, while some years on Benner’s chart did coincide with notable market events (1987 crash, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 financial crisis), the predictions were not consistently accurate or precise enough for reliable trading.

Practical Takeaways for Today’s Investors

The “periods when to make money” chart remains a fascinating historical artifact and educational tool for understanding how past investors attempted to systematize market behavior. However, relying on it as a precise forecasting mechanism risks substantial financial loss.

Instead, financial professionals recommend:

• Diversification across asset classes and geographies reduces reliance on predicting any single market’s timing
• Dollar-cost averaging (regular, consistent investing over time) removes pressure to time individual periods perfectly
• Long-term orientation allows investors to benefit from overall economic growth rather than obsessing over cyclical peaks and troughs
• Risk management through proper position sizing and portfolio rebalancing provides protection regardless of which period the market enters

The chart’s enduring popularity demonstrates humanity’s eternal quest for pattern recognition and predictability in inherently uncertain systems. While honoring this historical perspective, modern investors are better served by embracing strategies that work across all market periods rather than attempting to predict which specific years will prove most favorable.