Today, global financial assets crashed in sync, leaving many people confused: Isn't gold supposed to rise during wars? How come even gold can't hold up?

Actually, the true core driver of this round of volatility is — crude oil.

📌 The logic chain is very clear right now:
Middle East situation deteriorates → oil prices surge → enterprise costs rise → profits get squeezed → stock valuations can't hold up
Meanwhile, oil prices push up inflation → Federal Reserve doesn't dare cut rates easily → higher rates persist longer → suppresses gold, Bitcoin, and other assets
So it's not simply a "risk-off mode," but "stagflation concerns" driving the market.

⚠️ Three key observations ahead:
1️⃣ Will the Middle East situation escalate to critical oil and gas infrastructure?
If it continues to intensify, oil prices will be difficult to fall back quickly.
2️⃣ Will oil prices stay elevated and refuse to come down?
If Brent stays above $100 or even $110 for the long term, the trouble won't be just a day or two — inflation, costs, and consumer confidence will all be affected.
3️⃣ Will the Federal Reserve remain "hawkish" because of this?
As long as inflation expectations don't decline, "higher rates for longer" will keep being repeated, which suppresses all risk assets.

📉 About gold and Bitcoin:
Gold does have risk-off properties, but if the market simultaneously worries about higher rates lasting longer, it will also be pressured.
Bitcoin getting hit first under this "stagflation + high rates" expectation is actually not surprising. It's not a risk-off asset, but an amplifier of risk sentiment.
So don't just focus on whether certain price levels break or not right now — watch oil prices and rate expectations more closely. If oil doesn't come down, the market will be hard-pressed to truly stabilize.