‘Nothing to Look Here,’ Says UBS About Tesla Stock

The first quarter of the year is almost over, and that means Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will soon be announcing its quarterly delivery haul. According to UBS’s Joseph Spak, however, investors should prepare themselves for some disappointing numbers.

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The analyst is calling for 345,000 deliveries in 1Q26, up 2% year-over-year but down 18% quarter-over-quarter. This is below his initial 1Q26 estimate of 360,000 and now sits 7% under the Visible Alpha consensus of 371,000. Spak believes deliveries might even come in slightly below his forecast, although an end-of-quarter push could provide a boost.

Spak’s updated view is based on several factors. In the U.S., the BEV market appears weak, and the Model S/X is winding down, although deliveries are expected to continue for several more quarters. Based on Autodata estimates, Tesla delivered 78,600 vehicles in January and February, down 6% compared with the same two-month period in 1Q25 and down 2% versus the first two months of 4Q25.

In Europe, deliveries across the top eight markets for the first two months of the quarter are down roughly 4% y/y, although Spak expects overall demand to be closer to flat, supported by strength in some countries. Specifically, Germany is up 32% y/y and France up 24%, while the UK is down 41% and the Netherlands down 56%. It’s worth noting that 1Q25 European deliveries were already relatively low, and the quarter tends to see more deliveries in the third month.

In China, factory output (wholesales) rose 36% y/y in February, although year-to-date figures are off a low base partly due to Chinese New Year timing. Domestic retail deliveries in China are down 6% y/y, while exports are up 112%, supporting deliveries in other regions, including Europe. Beyond the U.S., Europe, and China, Spak expects growth in other regions.

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The thing is, Spak thinks auto deliveries are unlikely to have much impact on the stock’s movement. “The amount of investor conversations we have about the traditional auto business and business fundamentals is very low,” he said. “In our view, the stock price is driven by narrative and future possibilities from AI ventures such as Robotaxi and Optimus. Of late, there are also more questions on Terafab and solar.”

As such, developments and execution of these initiatives appear to be more important for the share price. Recent investor feedback suggests that updates around Robotaxi and Optimus have been slower and more subdued than anticipated. Additionally, following the launch of Nvidia’s Alpamayo and other autonomous vehicle announcements, including Waymo’s continued scaling, there also seems to be a growing view that Tesla might “not sustainably differentiate” in robo-taxis.

“While we expect sentiment will continue to overwhelmingly drive the stock (certainly more than auto deliveries), it is (primarily) the auto business that helps fund Tesla’s cash flow and hence their investment for growth ($20bn capex this year),” Spak summed up.

All told, Spak assigns TSLA shares a Sell rating, while his $352 price target suggests the stock is overvalued by ~8%. (To watch Spak’s track record, click here)

The broader Street isn’t exactly pounding the table either. The average price target stands at $399.25, pointing to a fairly limited 12-month upside of roughly 5%. Meanwhile, with 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and 7 Sells, the overall analyst consensus lands squarely in Hold (i.e., Neutral) territory. (See TSLA stock forecast)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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